Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 12
É uma continuação do tópico Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 11.
DiscussãoPro and Con
Entre no LibraryThing para poder publicar.
1margd
History may not repeat itself but looks like it might rhyme... :(
In last thread, researchers found evidence of CO2 increase, AMOC weakening, and climate upheavals in water isotopes from ancient Antarctic ice.
Below, researchers link human decimation and migration related to climate change 900,000 years ago.
Study Reveals How Ancient Humans Escaped Climate Extinction 900,000 Years Ago
Humans
Michelle Starr | 18 March 2024
...researchers re-evaluated records of sites of early hominid habitation across Eurasia, and found a cluster of sites reliably dated to 900,000 years ago. In comparison, the dating on older sites used as evidence of a population bottleneck was more ambiguous and therefore disputable.
They compared their findings to marine sediment records, which preserve evidence of changes in the climate in the form of oxygen isotopes . Ratios of oxygen trapped in sediment layers indicate whether the climate was warmer or cooler at the time the minerals were deposited.
The genomic data and the dating of the hominid sites together suggest that the bottleneck and the migration were simultaneous. During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, global ocean levels dropped, and Africa and Asia dried out, with large patches of aridity. Hominids living in Africa would have faced horrible conditions depriving them of food and water. Fortunately, with the falling sea level, land routes into Eurasia became available and they were able to skedaddle, according to the researchers' model...
https://www.sciencealert.com/study-reveals-how-ancient-humans-escaped-climate-ex...
----------------------------------------------
Giovanni Muttoni et al. 2024. Hominin population bottleneck coincided with migration from Africa during the Early Pleistocene ice age transition. PNAS March 11, 2024. 121 (13) e2318903121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318903121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2318903121
In last thread, researchers found evidence of CO2 increase, AMOC weakening, and climate upheavals in water isotopes from ancient Antarctic ice.
Below, researchers link human decimation and migration related to climate change 900,000 years ago.
Study Reveals How Ancient Humans Escaped Climate Extinction 900,000 Years Ago
Humans
Michelle Starr | 18 March 2024
...researchers re-evaluated records of sites of early hominid habitation across Eurasia, and found a cluster of sites reliably dated to 900,000 years ago. In comparison, the dating on older sites used as evidence of a population bottleneck was more ambiguous and therefore disputable.
They compared their findings to marine sediment records, which preserve evidence of changes in the climate in the form of oxygen isotopes . Ratios of oxygen trapped in sediment layers indicate whether the climate was warmer or cooler at the time the minerals were deposited.
The genomic data and the dating of the hominid sites together suggest that the bottleneck and the migration were simultaneous. During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, global ocean levels dropped, and Africa and Asia dried out, with large patches of aridity. Hominids living in Africa would have faced horrible conditions depriving them of food and water. Fortunately, with the falling sea level, land routes into Eurasia became available and they were able to skedaddle, according to the researchers' model...
https://www.sciencealert.com/study-reveals-how-ancient-humans-escaped-climate-ex...
----------------------------------------------
Giovanni Muttoni et al. 2024. Hominin population bottleneck coincided with migration from Africa during the Early Pleistocene ice age transition. PNAS March 11, 2024. 121 (13) e2318903121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318903121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2318903121
2margd
Dramatic Shift in Africa 5,000 Years Ago Could Be a Warning of The Future
Martin Trauth | 12 May 2024
...Around five and half millennia ago, northern Africa went through a dramatic transformation. The Sahara desert expanded and grasslands, forests and lakes favoured by humans disappeared. Humans were forced to retreat to the mountains, the oases, and the Nile valley and delta.
As a relatively large and dispersed population was squeezed into smaller and more fertile areas, it needed to innovate new ways to produce food and organise society. Soon after, one of the world's first great civilisations emerged – ancient Egypt.
This transition from the most recent "African humid period", which lasted from 15,000 to 5,500 years ago, to the current dry conditions in northern Africa is the clearest example of a climate tipping point in recent geological history. Climate tipping points are thresholds that, once crossed, result in dramatic climate change to a new stable climate.
...before northern Africa dried out, its climate "flickered" between two stable climatic states before tipping permanently. This is the first time it's been shown such flickering happened in Earth's past. And it suggests that places with highly variable cycles of changing climate today may in some cases by headed for tipping points of their own.
Whether we will have any warnings of climate tipping points is one of the biggest concerns of climate scientists today. As we pass global warming of 1.5˚C, the most likely tipping points involve the collapse of ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica, tropical coral reefs dying off, or abrupt thawing of Arctic permafrost.
Some say that there will be warning signs of these major climate shifts. However, these depend very much on the actual type of tipping point, and the interpretation of these signals is therefore difficult. One of the big questions is whether tipping points will be characterised by flickering or whether the climate will initially appear to become more stable before tipping over in one go...
...We now know that at the end of the African humid period there was around 1,000 years in which the climate alternated regularly between being intensely dry and wet...
...We see the same types of flickering during a previous change from humid to dry climate around 379,000 years ago in the same sediment core {long before humans had any influence on the environment}. It looks like a perfect copy of the transition at the end of the African humid period.
...It seems that highly variable climate conditions such as rapid wet–dry cycles may warn of a significant shift in the climate system. Identifying these precursors now may provide the warning we need that future warming will take us across one of more of the sixteen identified critical climate tipping points. {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950}
This is particularly important for regions such as eastern Africa whose nearly 500 million people are already highly vulnerable to climate change induced impacts such as drought...
https://www.sciencealert.com/dramatic-shift-in-africa-5000-years-ago-could-be-a-...
-----------------------------------------
Martin H. Trauth et al. 2024. Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s). Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 3697 (7 May 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47921-1
Martin Trauth | 12 May 2024
...Around five and half millennia ago, northern Africa went through a dramatic transformation. The Sahara desert expanded and grasslands, forests and lakes favoured by humans disappeared. Humans were forced to retreat to the mountains, the oases, and the Nile valley and delta.
As a relatively large and dispersed population was squeezed into smaller and more fertile areas, it needed to innovate new ways to produce food and organise society. Soon after, one of the world's first great civilisations emerged – ancient Egypt.
This transition from the most recent "African humid period", which lasted from 15,000 to 5,500 years ago, to the current dry conditions in northern Africa is the clearest example of a climate tipping point in recent geological history. Climate tipping points are thresholds that, once crossed, result in dramatic climate change to a new stable climate.
...before northern Africa dried out, its climate "flickered" between two stable climatic states before tipping permanently. This is the first time it's been shown such flickering happened in Earth's past. And it suggests that places with highly variable cycles of changing climate today may in some cases by headed for tipping points of their own.
Whether we will have any warnings of climate tipping points is one of the biggest concerns of climate scientists today. As we pass global warming of 1.5˚C, the most likely tipping points involve the collapse of ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica, tropical coral reefs dying off, or abrupt thawing of Arctic permafrost.
Some say that there will be warning signs of these major climate shifts. However, these depend very much on the actual type of tipping point, and the interpretation of these signals is therefore difficult. One of the big questions is whether tipping points will be characterised by flickering or whether the climate will initially appear to become more stable before tipping over in one go...
...We now know that at the end of the African humid period there was around 1,000 years in which the climate alternated regularly between being intensely dry and wet...
...We see the same types of flickering during a previous change from humid to dry climate around 379,000 years ago in the same sediment core {long before humans had any influence on the environment}. It looks like a perfect copy of the transition at the end of the African humid period.
...It seems that highly variable climate conditions such as rapid wet–dry cycles may warn of a significant shift in the climate system. Identifying these precursors now may provide the warning we need that future warming will take us across one of more of the sixteen identified critical climate tipping points. {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950}
This is particularly important for regions such as eastern Africa whose nearly 500 million people are already highly vulnerable to climate change induced impacts such as drought...
https://www.sciencealert.com/dramatic-shift-in-africa-5000-years-ago-could-be-a-...
-----------------------------------------
Martin H. Trauth et al. 2024. Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s). Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 3697 (7 May 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47921-1
3margd
One event could wreak global climate havoc. Neither side of Australian politics has got a clue about it...
Climate Code Red | 13 May 2024
There is no greater disruptive physical climate risk than the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the main current system in the South and North Atlantic Oceans, which is linked to circulation in the Southern Ocean.
There is a non-trivial and unacceptable risk that the AMOC flow will collapse this century, with devastating consequences for global food production, for sea levels and for flooding in Australia. Shifts in global weather patterns would likely deprive Asia of vital monsoon rains, with enormous security consequences for the region and for Australia.
AMOC slowdown: ... It has been in a steady state for thousands of years, but climate change is melting Greenland at an accelerating rate, adding more fresh water to the Atlantic Ocean and gradually slowing the circulation strength... This system has already slowed by 15 per cent since the mid-20th century.
Collapse: ...A July 2023 study* estimated “a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions”, with a high confidence (95 per cent probability) of it occurring between 2025 and 2095. ...
Antarctic connection: ...Antarctic deep ocean warming and changes in deep ocean circulation contribut(e) to a slowing of the AMOC over the next few decades, with physical measurements confirming these changes already well underway. ...
Likelihood: {Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam U) warns that “when several studies with different data and methods point to a tipping point that is already quite close, I think this risk should be taken very seriously” and “increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 per cent during this century – even rather worrying for the next few decades”.
Consequences: ...AMOC slowdown would cool London by an average of 10°C and Bergen, Norway by 15°C. A breakdown of this system could plunge the UK and large parts of the Northern Hemisphere into a new ice age, with temperatures in parts of Europe dropping by 3°C each decade and sea levels rising by a metre on both sides of the North Atlantic, while the wet and dry seasons in the Amazon would flip and severely disrupt the rainforest’s ecosystem.
Global food and water security crisis: ...collapse of the AMOC heat-transporting circulation would be a going-out-of-business scenario for European agriculture...the monsoons that typically deliver rain to West Africa and South Asia would become unreliable, and huge swaths of Europe and Russia would be devastated by drought. As much as half of the world’s viable area for growing corn and wheat could dry out. {Prof. Peter Ditlevsen* of the University of Copenhagen} says that “in simple terms {it} would be a combined food and water security crisis on a global scale.”
Consequences for Australia: The southern hemisphere, including Australia, would become warmer and more prone to flooding. A regional food crisis would have huge impacts on the global price of food, leading to large-scale regional people displacement and contributing to state breakdown and regional conflict.
...The only rational response to possible AMOC collapse is a global emergency effort to reduce emissions to zero far sooner than policymakers’ 2050 timeframe, along with whatever other measures can be applied to prevent the levels of warming triggering such an event...
Download full report: Australia's Security Leaders Climate Group. May 2024. Too Hot to Handle. The Sorching Reality of Australia's Climate-Security Failure. https://www.aslcg.org/reports/too-hot-to-handle/
https://www.climatecodered.org/2024/05/one-climate-event-could-wreak-global.html
------------------------------------------
* Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen 2023. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 4254 (25 July 2023). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w#Sec7
Abstract
...We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
Discussion
...We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range) ... given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse.
Though we have established firm statistical methods to evaluate the confidence in the observed EWS (Early Warning Signals), we can at present not rule out the possibility that a collapse will only be partial and not lead to a full collapse of the AMOC as suggested by some models... Furthermore, a high speed of ramping, i.e., a high speed at which the critical value of the control parameter is approached, could also increase the probability of tipping... Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications..., it is important to monitor the flow and EWS from direct measurements...
Climate Code Red | 13 May 2024
There is no greater disruptive physical climate risk than the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the main current system in the South and North Atlantic Oceans, which is linked to circulation in the Southern Ocean.
There is a non-trivial and unacceptable risk that the AMOC flow will collapse this century, with devastating consequences for global food production, for sea levels and for flooding in Australia. Shifts in global weather patterns would likely deprive Asia of vital monsoon rains, with enormous security consequences for the region and for Australia.
AMOC slowdown: ... It has been in a steady state for thousands of years, but climate change is melting Greenland at an accelerating rate, adding more fresh water to the Atlantic Ocean and gradually slowing the circulation strength... This system has already slowed by 15 per cent since the mid-20th century.
Collapse: ...A July 2023 study* estimated “a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions”, with a high confidence (95 per cent probability) of it occurring between 2025 and 2095. ...
Antarctic connection: ...Antarctic deep ocean warming and changes in deep ocean circulation contribut(e) to a slowing of the AMOC over the next few decades, with physical measurements confirming these changes already well underway. ...
Likelihood: {Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam U) warns that “when several studies with different data and methods point to a tipping point that is already quite close, I think this risk should be taken very seriously” and “increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 per cent during this century – even rather worrying for the next few decades”.
Consequences: ...AMOC slowdown would cool London by an average of 10°C and Bergen, Norway by 15°C. A breakdown of this system could plunge the UK and large parts of the Northern Hemisphere into a new ice age, with temperatures in parts of Europe dropping by 3°C each decade and sea levels rising by a metre on both sides of the North Atlantic, while the wet and dry seasons in the Amazon would flip and severely disrupt the rainforest’s ecosystem.
Global food and water security crisis: ...collapse of the AMOC heat-transporting circulation would be a going-out-of-business scenario for European agriculture...the monsoons that typically deliver rain to West Africa and South Asia would become unreliable, and huge swaths of Europe and Russia would be devastated by drought. As much as half of the world’s viable area for growing corn and wheat could dry out. {Prof. Peter Ditlevsen* of the University of Copenhagen} says that “in simple terms {it} would be a combined food and water security crisis on a global scale.”
Consequences for Australia: The southern hemisphere, including Australia, would become warmer and more prone to flooding. A regional food crisis would have huge impacts on the global price of food, leading to large-scale regional people displacement and contributing to state breakdown and regional conflict.
...The only rational response to possible AMOC collapse is a global emergency effort to reduce emissions to zero far sooner than policymakers’ 2050 timeframe, along with whatever other measures can be applied to prevent the levels of warming triggering such an event...
Download full report: Australia's Security Leaders Climate Group. May 2024. Too Hot to Handle. The Sorching Reality of Australia's Climate-Security Failure. https://www.aslcg.org/reports/too-hot-to-handle/
https://www.climatecodered.org/2024/05/one-climate-event-could-wreak-global.html
------------------------------------------
* Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen 2023. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 4254 (25 July 2023). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w#Sec7
Abstract
...We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
Discussion
...We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range) ... given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse.
Though we have established firm statistical methods to evaluate the confidence in the observed EWS (Early Warning Signals), we can at present not rule out the possibility that a collapse will only be partial and not lead to a full collapse of the AMOC as suggested by some models... Furthermore, a high speed of ramping, i.e., a high speed at which the critical value of the control parameter is approached, could also increase the probability of tipping... Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications..., it is important to monitor the flow and EWS from direct measurements...
4margd
>3 margd: AMOC collapse, contd. On course... :(
Atlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point − once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we would see extreme climate change within decades, study shows
René van Westen, Henk A. Dijkstra and Michael Kliphuis (Utrecht University) | Updated: February 11, 2024
...the Atlantic Ocean circulation has observably slowed over the past two decades, possibly to its weakest state in almost a millennium....the circulation has reached a dangerous tipping point in the past that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it could hit that tipping point again as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.
...We performed an experiment with a detailed climate model to find the tipping point for an abrupt shutdown by slowly increasing the input of fresh water.
We found that once it reaches the tipping point, the conveyor belt shuts down within 100 years. The heat transport toward the north is strongly reduced, leading to abrupt climate shifts.
The result: Dangerous cold in the North...The conveyor belt shutting down would also affect sea level and precipitation patterns, which can push other ecosystems closer to their tipping points.
So, when will we see this tipping point?...a physics-based and observable early warning signal involving the salinity transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean {margd: latitude 34°S? Per graph in article, 0.5 input of freshwater? } . Once a threshold is reached, the tipping point is likely to follow in one to four decades...
https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-me...
------------------------------------------
René M. van Westen et al. 2024. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science Advances, 9 Feb 2024, Vol 10, Issue 6.
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Atlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point − once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we would see extreme climate change within decades, study shows
René van Westen, Henk A. Dijkstra and Michael Kliphuis (Utrecht University) | Updated: February 11, 2024
...the Atlantic Ocean circulation has observably slowed over the past two decades, possibly to its weakest state in almost a millennium....the circulation has reached a dangerous tipping point in the past that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it could hit that tipping point again as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.
...We performed an experiment with a detailed climate model to find the tipping point for an abrupt shutdown by slowly increasing the input of fresh water.
We found that once it reaches the tipping point, the conveyor belt shuts down within 100 years. The heat transport toward the north is strongly reduced, leading to abrupt climate shifts.
The result: Dangerous cold in the North...The conveyor belt shutting down would also affect sea level and precipitation patterns, which can push other ecosystems closer to their tipping points.
So, when will we see this tipping point?...a physics-based and observable early warning signal involving the salinity transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean {margd: latitude 34°S? Per graph in article, 0.5 input of freshwater? } . Once a threshold is reached, the tipping point is likely to follow in one to four decades...
https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-me...
------------------------------------------
René M. van Westen et al. 2024. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science Advances, 9 Feb 2024, Vol 10, Issue 6.
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
5margd
Pope Francis: "Climate change at this moment is a road to death"
Jennifer Earl | May 21, 2024
..."How worried are you about climate change?" CBS Evening News anchor and managing editor Norah O'Donnell asked Francis during a historic interview in Vatican City.
"Unfortunately, we have gotten to a point of no return. It's sad, but that's what it is. Global warming is a serious problem," Francis replied. "Climate change at this moment is a road to death."
Francis said wealthy countries reliant on fossil fuels are contributing to the problem.
"They are the countries that can make the most difference, given their industry and all, aren't they? But it is very difficult to create an awareness of this. They hold a conference, everybody is in agreement, they all sign, and then bye-bye. But we have to be very clear, global warming is alarming," Francis said.
...On Earth Day this year, Francis wrote a message on social media saying, "Our generation has bequeathed many riches, but we have failed to protect the planet and we are not safeguarding peace. We are called to become artisans and caretakers of our common home, the Earth which is 'falling into ruin.'"..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pope-francis-urges-action-on-climate-change-its-a-r...
Jennifer Earl | May 21, 2024
..."How worried are you about climate change?" CBS Evening News anchor and managing editor Norah O'Donnell asked Francis during a historic interview in Vatican City.
"Unfortunately, we have gotten to a point of no return. It's sad, but that's what it is. Global warming is a serious problem," Francis replied. "Climate change at this moment is a road to death."
Francis said wealthy countries reliant on fossil fuels are contributing to the problem.
"They are the countries that can make the most difference, given their industry and all, aren't they? But it is very difficult to create an awareness of this. They hold a conference, everybody is in agreement, they all sign, and then bye-bye. But we have to be very clear, global warming is alarming," Francis said.
...On Earth Day this year, Francis wrote a message on social media saying, "Our generation has bequeathed many riches, but we have failed to protect the planet and we are not safeguarding peace. We are called to become artisans and caretakers of our common home, the Earth which is 'falling into ruin.'"..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pope-francis-urges-action-on-climate-change-its-a-r...
6margd
Alaska's pristine rivers are turning a rusty orange even when seen from space, likely because of melting permafrost: study
Matthew Loh | May 23, 2024
Scientists say that dozens of waterways in Alaska are "rusting," or turning into a dirty orange.
They said permafrost thawing in the summer is now exposing minerals to the surface, releasing metals and acid.
Some brooks and streams are turning so acidic that they're comparable to lemon or orange juice {pH 2.6}...
...At least 75...first observed in 2018 ... first observed in the northwestern state in 2018 ... Previously locked beneath Alaska's permafrost, these minerals are now exposed to water and oxygen, causing them to release acid and metals like zinc, copper, iron, and aluminum ... dissolved iron is thought to be the main culprit behind the "rusting" of the rivers...
https://www.businessinsider.com/75-alaskan-rivers-turning-orange-even-seen-from-...
---------------------------------------
Jonathan A. O’Donnell et al. 2024. Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams. Communications Earth & Environment volume 5, Article number: 268 (20 May 2024). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01446-z?CJEVENT=cd5a07a218d811ef83f94...
Matthew Loh | May 23, 2024
Scientists say that dozens of waterways in Alaska are "rusting," or turning into a dirty orange.
They said permafrost thawing in the summer is now exposing minerals to the surface, releasing metals and acid.
Some brooks and streams are turning so acidic that they're comparable to lemon or orange juice {pH 2.6}...
...At least 75...first observed in 2018 ... first observed in the northwestern state in 2018 ... Previously locked beneath Alaska's permafrost, these minerals are now exposed to water and oxygen, causing them to release acid and metals like zinc, copper, iron, and aluminum ... dissolved iron is thought to be the main culprit behind the "rusting" of the rivers...
https://www.businessinsider.com/75-alaskan-rivers-turning-orange-even-seen-from-...
---------------------------------------
Jonathan A. O’Donnell et al. 2024. Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams. Communications Earth & Environment volume 5, Article number: 268 (20 May 2024). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01446-z?CJEVENT=cd5a07a218d811ef83f94...
7margd
Top oil firms’ climate pledges failing on almost every metric, report finds
Dharna Noor | 21 May 2024
Oil Change International says plans do not stand up to scrutiny and describes US fossil-fuel corporations as ‘the worst of the worst’...
...examined climate plans from the eight largest US- and European-based international oil and gas producers – BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies – and found none were compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – a threshold scientists have long warned could have dire consequences if breached...
...the companies’ current oil and gas extraction plans could lead to more than 2.4C of global temperature rise, which would probably usher in climate devastation...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/21/oil-companies-report-fos...
Dharna Noor | 21 May 2024
Oil Change International says plans do not stand up to scrutiny and describes US fossil-fuel corporations as ‘the worst of the worst’...
...examined climate plans from the eight largest US- and European-based international oil and gas producers – BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies – and found none were compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – a threshold scientists have long warned could have dire consequences if breached...
...the companies’ current oil and gas extraction plans could lead to more than 2.4C of global temperature rise, which would probably usher in climate devastation...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/21/oil-companies-report-fos...
8margd
The True Power of the Climate Movement Is Now to Admit Our Own Powerlessness
Rupert Read | May 22, 2024
...What if the most powerful thing that can be done now is for those who carry the flame ... to admit a kind of defeat? To admit that we are definitively exiting the safe climate space...
https://www.desmog.com/2024/05/22/the-true-power-of-the-climate-movement-is-now-...
-----------------------------------------------
This civilisation is finished: so what is to be done? (1:11:55 -- 40 min presentation + Q&A)
Rupert Read, Environmental Philosopher and Chair of Green House Think Tank.
Filmed at Churchill College, University of Cambridge. 7 Nov 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzCxFPzdO0Y
The Paris Agreement explicitly commits us to use non-existent, utterly reckless, unaffordable and ineffective 'Negative Emissions Technologies' which will almost certainly fail to be realised. Barring a multifaceted miracle, within a generation, we will be facing an exponentially rising tide of climate disasters that will bring this civilization down. We, therefore, need to engage with climate realism. This means an epic struggle to mitigate and adapt, an epic struggle to take on the climate-criminals and, notably, to start planning seriously for civilizational collapse...
-------------------------------------
1. Wake up
2. Talk about this
3. Think civilizational succession--values, skills
4. Build lifeboats --$, food, community, seed banks, i.e., transformational adaptation, deep adaptation (sea level rise)
5. Holding action
6. Rebel
7. Stop--take time to think
Rupert Read | May 22, 2024
...What if the most powerful thing that can be done now is for those who carry the flame ... to admit a kind of defeat? To admit that we are definitively exiting the safe climate space...
https://www.desmog.com/2024/05/22/the-true-power-of-the-climate-movement-is-now-...
-----------------------------------------------
This civilisation is finished: so what is to be done? (1:11:55 -- 40 min presentation + Q&A)
Rupert Read, Environmental Philosopher and Chair of Green House Think Tank.
Filmed at Churchill College, University of Cambridge. 7 Nov 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzCxFPzdO0Y
The Paris Agreement explicitly commits us to use non-existent, utterly reckless, unaffordable and ineffective 'Negative Emissions Technologies' which will almost certainly fail to be realised. Barring a multifaceted miracle, within a generation, we will be facing an exponentially rising tide of climate disasters that will bring this civilization down. We, therefore, need to engage with climate realism. This means an epic struggle to mitigate and adapt, an epic struggle to take on the climate-criminals and, notably, to start planning seriously for civilizational collapse...
-------------------------------------
1. Wake up
2. Talk about this
3. Think civilizational succession--values, skills
4. Build lifeboats --$, food, community, seed banks, i.e., transformational adaptation, deep adaptation (sea level rise)
5. Holding action
6. Rebel
7. Stop--take time to think
9margd
Yellow Dot Studios @weareyellowdot | 12:27 PM · May 23, 2024:
Non-profit media studio challenging polluter BS to mobilize climate action. Founded by Adam McKay.
Dr. Hansen's blockbuster announcement ... has received exactly... zero (0) press stories.
Live reactions to Dr. James Hansen's announcement last week that Earth has already reached 1.5°C of global warming:
0:59 (https://x.com/weareyellowdot/status/1793678471719178508)
--------------------------------------
James Edward Hansen @DrJamesEHansen | 9:29 AM · May 16, 2024:
Director of Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions at Columbia University's Earth Institute http://csas.earth.columbia.edu
Formerly Director of NASA GISS
Global temperature is now near its peak due to El Nino + aerosol decrease. How far will it fall in the coming La Nina? If El Nino/La Nina average is ~1.5C, given Earth’s energy imbalance, we are now passing thru 1.5C, for practical purposes. See MayRpt -
Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato | 16 May 2024
https://mailchi.mp/caa/comments-on-global-warming-acceleration-sulfur-emissions-...
Graph Temperature anomaly 1880-present (https://x.com/DrJamesEHansen/status/1791098653622571341/photo/1)
Non-profit media studio challenging polluter BS to mobilize climate action. Founded by Adam McKay.
Dr. Hansen's blockbuster announcement ... has received exactly... zero (0) press stories.
Live reactions to Dr. James Hansen's announcement last week that Earth has already reached 1.5°C of global warming:
0:59 (https://x.com/weareyellowdot/status/1793678471719178508)
--------------------------------------
James Edward Hansen @DrJamesEHansen | 9:29 AM · May 16, 2024:
Director of Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions at Columbia University's Earth Institute http://csas.earth.columbia.edu
Formerly Director of NASA GISS
Global temperature is now near its peak due to El Nino + aerosol decrease. How far will it fall in the coming La Nina? If El Nino/La Nina average is ~1.5C, given Earth’s energy imbalance, we are now passing thru 1.5C, for practical purposes. See MayRpt -
Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato | 16 May 2024
https://mailchi.mp/caa/comments-on-global-warming-acceleration-sulfur-emissions-...
Graph Temperature anomaly 1880-present (https://x.com/DrJamesEHansen/status/1791098653622571341/photo/1)
10margd
Ocean water is rushing miles underneath the ‘Doomsday Glacier’ with potentially dire impacts on sea level rise
Laura Paddison | May 21, 2024
... The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica — nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier” because its collapse could cause catastrophic sea level rise — is the world’s widest glacier and roughly the size of Florida. It’s also Antarctica’s most vulnerable and unstable glacier, in large part because the land on which it sits slopes downward, allowing ocean waters to eat away at its ice.
Thwaites, which already contributes 4% to global sea level rise, holds enough ice to raise sea levels by more than 2 feet. But because it also acts as a natural dam to the surrounding ice in West Antarctica, scientists have estimated its complete collapse could ultimately lead to around 10 feet of sea level rise — a catastrophe for the world’s coastal communities.
...glaciologists ... used high resolution satellite radar data, collected between March and June last year, to create an X-ray of the glacier. This allowed them to build a picture of changes to Thwaites’ “grounding line,” the point at which the glacier rises from the seabed and becomes a floating ice shelf. Grounding lines are vital to the stability of ice sheets, and a key point of vulnerability for Thwaites, but have been difficult to study.
... They observed seawater pushing beneath the glacier over many miles, and then moving out again, following the daily rhythm of the tides. When the water flows in, it’s enough to “jack up” the surface of the glacier by centimeters, {Eric Rignot, professor of Earth system science at the University of California at Irvine and a co-author on the study} told CNN.
He suggested the term “grounding zone” may be more apt than grounding line, as it can move nearly 4 miles over a 12-hour tidal cycle, according to their research.
The speed of the seawater, which moves considerable distances over a short time period, increases glacier melt because as soon as the ice melts, freshwater is washed out and replaced with warmer seawater, Rignot said...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/20/climate/doomsday-glacier-melt-antarctica-climate-...
Laura Paddison | May 21, 2024
... The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica — nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier” because its collapse could cause catastrophic sea level rise — is the world’s widest glacier and roughly the size of Florida. It’s also Antarctica’s most vulnerable and unstable glacier, in large part because the land on which it sits slopes downward, allowing ocean waters to eat away at its ice.
Thwaites, which already contributes 4% to global sea level rise, holds enough ice to raise sea levels by more than 2 feet. But because it also acts as a natural dam to the surrounding ice in West Antarctica, scientists have estimated its complete collapse could ultimately lead to around 10 feet of sea level rise — a catastrophe for the world’s coastal communities.
...glaciologists ... used high resolution satellite radar data, collected between March and June last year, to create an X-ray of the glacier. This allowed them to build a picture of changes to Thwaites’ “grounding line,” the point at which the glacier rises from the seabed and becomes a floating ice shelf. Grounding lines are vital to the stability of ice sheets, and a key point of vulnerability for Thwaites, but have been difficult to study.
... They observed seawater pushing beneath the glacier over many miles, and then moving out again, following the daily rhythm of the tides. When the water flows in, it’s enough to “jack up” the surface of the glacier by centimeters, {Eric Rignot, professor of Earth system science at the University of California at Irvine and a co-author on the study} told CNN.
He suggested the term “grounding zone” may be more apt than grounding line, as it can move nearly 4 miles over a 12-hour tidal cycle, according to their research.
The speed of the seawater, which moves considerable distances over a short time period, increases glacier melt because as soon as the ice melts, freshwater is washed out and replaced with warmer seawater, Rignot said...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/20/climate/doomsday-glacier-melt-antarctica-climate-...
11margd
https://e360.yale.edu/features/southern-africa-drought-crops
How an El Niño-Driven Drought Brought Hunger to Southern Africa
Jenipher Changwanda and Freddie Clayton • May 20, 2024
A record-breaking drought, fueled by the El Niño weather pattern, has caused widespread crop failure and national emergency declarations in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. Without harvests of maize, the staple food, millions in the region are facing a severe hunger crisis.
A World Weather Attribution study found that El Niño — a recurring phenomenon that brings unusually warm waters to the Pacific Ocean and disrupts weather patterns around the world — was the key driver behind the record-breaking drought. Between January and March, when the rains usually fall on {a village in Zambia’s Chongwe District, not far from the capital, Lusaka}, heat waves and temperatures 9 degrees F. (5 degrees C) above average devastated southern Africa.
Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi each declared national disasters as crops failed in a region where 70 percent of smallholder farmers rely on rainfed agriculture for their livelihood. Food prices have risen up to 82 percent in some drought-affected areas, while water scarcity has also impacted livestock and destroyed farmland. According to a United Nations report, more than 18 million people are now in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, with food insecurity levels set to increase dramatically during the regular lean season that typically starts in October. This year, the lean season could begin as early as July as provisions are depleted.
Analysts working for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said that southern Africa, typically a net exporter of maize — the region’s staple food — would have to import 5 million tons to meet demand.
El Niño ended in April as the Pacific Ocean cooled, but this offers little reprieve. Drought has pushed southern Africa to its limits, and the rains won’t come again until October. The region can scarcely handle the current reality, yet there are serious concerns that events like this are getting worse...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/southern-africa-drought-crops
________________________________
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 6:36 PM · May 26, 2024:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Climate Policy plans that lead to a world beyond 2C of warming is a very, very bad plan. A world beyond 2C is an uninhabitable Earth for billions of people. There better be a better plan than that, and it better be very soon.
Global map (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1794860150685319458/photo/1)
How an El Niño-Driven Drought Brought Hunger to Southern Africa
Jenipher Changwanda and Freddie Clayton • May 20, 2024
A record-breaking drought, fueled by the El Niño weather pattern, has caused widespread crop failure and national emergency declarations in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. Without harvests of maize, the staple food, millions in the region are facing a severe hunger crisis.
A World Weather Attribution study found that El Niño — a recurring phenomenon that brings unusually warm waters to the Pacific Ocean and disrupts weather patterns around the world — was the key driver behind the record-breaking drought. Between January and March, when the rains usually fall on {a village in Zambia’s Chongwe District, not far from the capital, Lusaka}, heat waves and temperatures 9 degrees F. (5 degrees C) above average devastated southern Africa.
Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi each declared national disasters as crops failed in a region where 70 percent of smallholder farmers rely on rainfed agriculture for their livelihood. Food prices have risen up to 82 percent in some drought-affected areas, while water scarcity has also impacted livestock and destroyed farmland. According to a United Nations report, more than 18 million people are now in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, with food insecurity levels set to increase dramatically during the regular lean season that typically starts in October. This year, the lean season could begin as early as July as provisions are depleted.
Analysts working for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said that southern Africa, typically a net exporter of maize — the region’s staple food — would have to import 5 million tons to meet demand.
El Niño ended in April as the Pacific Ocean cooled, but this offers little reprieve. Drought has pushed southern Africa to its limits, and the rains won’t come again until October. The region can scarcely handle the current reality, yet there are serious concerns that events like this are getting worse...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/southern-africa-drought-crops
________________________________
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 6:36 PM · May 26, 2024:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Climate Policy plans that lead to a world beyond 2C of warming is a very, very bad plan. A world beyond 2C is an uninhabitable Earth for billions of people. There better be a better plan than that, and it better be very soon.
Global map (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1794860150685319458/photo/1)
12margd
Oldest ever ice offers glimpse of Earth before the ice ages
Elise Cutts | 22 Apr 2024
Climate snapshots suggest carbon dioxide levels were surprisingly modest during ancient warm period
Samples of eerie blue glacial ice from Antarctica are a staggering 6 million years old ... Bubbles in the ice trap air from the Pliocene epoch, a time before the ice ages when the planet was several degrees warmer than today and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels may have been just as high as they are now. But an initial analysis of the bubbles suggests CO2 levels were rather low in the late Pliocene and only sank slightly between 2.7 million and 1 million years ago as the Pliocene ended, the ice ages began, and Earth headed toward a dramatic climate shift that caused ice ages to grow longer and deeper.
...Scientists think high levels of CO2 were responsible for the Pliocene’s warmth. Proxy data from sediment cores, such as the chemical compositions of the shells of tiny marine algae and plant leaf waxes, suggest CO2 was probably about as high as today’s unnaturally elevated level, 425 parts per million (ppm). But not one blue ice sample older than 1 million years exceeded 300 ppm...
The greenhouse gas data also raise questions about a mysterious climate shift that began about 1.2 million years ago. At this time, something caused the ice ages to grow longer and more intense, stretching out from mild 40,000-year cycles to deeper 100,000-year cycles. The leading theory for this flip is that CO2 levels dropped, allowing ice sheets to grow too thick to melt away on a 40,000-year cycle. A new climate record from clues preserved in sediment cores, reported in February, supports that picture. But the snapshots across the transition found in the blue ice suggest CO2 levels held steady between about 220 ppm and 250 ppm. “We don’t see much change in CO2,” {Julia Marks Peterson, a paleoclimatologist at OSU who performed the greenhouse gas analysis. says. “That doesn’t mean there wasn’t one. But it might be smaller than we expected.”
To find out what really triggered the ice age shift, researchers want a continuous core that covers the transition. Finding such a core “is kind of the holy grail of understanding whether the CO2 was part of this change,” {Eric Wolff, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Cambridge who wasn’t involved in the work} says. ... Scientific teams from the United States, Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia are all working to find one...
https://www.science.org/content/article/oldest-ever-ice-offers-glimpse-earth-ice...
Elise Cutts | 22 Apr 2024
Climate snapshots suggest carbon dioxide levels were surprisingly modest during ancient warm period
Samples of eerie blue glacial ice from Antarctica are a staggering 6 million years old ... Bubbles in the ice trap air from the Pliocene epoch, a time before the ice ages when the planet was several degrees warmer than today and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels may have been just as high as they are now. But an initial analysis of the bubbles suggests CO2 levels were rather low in the late Pliocene and only sank slightly between 2.7 million and 1 million years ago as the Pliocene ended, the ice ages began, and Earth headed toward a dramatic climate shift that caused ice ages to grow longer and deeper.
...Scientists think high levels of CO2 were responsible for the Pliocene’s warmth. Proxy data from sediment cores, such as the chemical compositions of the shells of tiny marine algae and plant leaf waxes, suggest CO2 was probably about as high as today’s unnaturally elevated level, 425 parts per million (ppm). But not one blue ice sample older than 1 million years exceeded 300 ppm...
The greenhouse gas data also raise questions about a mysterious climate shift that began about 1.2 million years ago. At this time, something caused the ice ages to grow longer and more intense, stretching out from mild 40,000-year cycles to deeper 100,000-year cycles. The leading theory for this flip is that CO2 levels dropped, allowing ice sheets to grow too thick to melt away on a 40,000-year cycle. A new climate record from clues preserved in sediment cores, reported in February, supports that picture. But the snapshots across the transition found in the blue ice suggest CO2 levels held steady between about 220 ppm and 250 ppm. “We don’t see much change in CO2,” {Julia Marks Peterson, a paleoclimatologist at OSU who performed the greenhouse gas analysis. says. “That doesn’t mean there wasn’t one. But it might be smaller than we expected.”
To find out what really triggered the ice age shift, researchers want a continuous core that covers the transition. Finding such a core “is kind of the holy grail of understanding whether the CO2 was part of this change,” {Eric Wolff, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Cambridge who wasn’t involved in the work} says. ... Scientific teams from the United States, Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia are all working to find one...
https://www.science.org/content/article/oldest-ever-ice-offers-glimpse-earth-ice...
13margd
ADA (THE ISLAND) (5:01)
movie directed by Mahmut TAŞ | Mar 11, 2024
...ENGLİSH :
Ada; She is a little girl living in a dry village where it has not rained for a long time. Ada's family is considering leaving the village if the thirst continues. Ada is very upset about this and wants to tell us about her village with her camera. She goes to a lake that used to be full of water and visits the island named after her. But she sees that the lake is completely dry, the soil is cracked and there is no water left in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2cMijeWVcg
movie directed by Mahmut TAŞ | Mar 11, 2024
...ENGLİSH :
Ada; She is a little girl living in a dry village where it has not rained for a long time. Ada's family is considering leaving the village if the thirst continues. Ada is very upset about this and wants to tell us about her village with her camera. She goes to a lake that used to be full of water and visits the island named after her. But she sees that the lake is completely dry, the soil is cracked and there is no water left in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2cMijeWVcg
14margd
Geez...the CAPITAL of India, not its deserts...
Delhi temperature hits highest ever in India, 52.3 Celsius: weather bureau
AFP | May 29, 2024
Temperatures in India’s capital soared to a national record-high of 52.3 degrees Celsius (126.1 Fahrenheit) ... The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which reported “severe heat-wave conditions”, recorded the temperature in the Delhi suburb of Mungeshpur on Wednesday afternoon, smashing the previous national record in the desert of Rajasthan by more one degree Celsius.
https://insiderpaper.com/indias-capital-hits-record-50-5-celsius-weather-bureau/
Delhi temperature hits highest ever in India, 52.3 Celsius: weather bureau
AFP | May 29, 2024
Temperatures in India’s capital soared to a national record-high of 52.3 degrees Celsius (126.1 Fahrenheit) ... The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which reported “severe heat-wave conditions”, recorded the temperature in the Delhi suburb of Mungeshpur on Wednesday afternoon, smashing the previous national record in the desert of Rajasthan by more one degree Celsius.
https://insiderpaper.com/indias-capital-hits-record-50-5-celsius-weather-bureau/
15margd
'A great sadness': Venezuela is first Andean country to lose all of its glaciers
Albinson Linares, Noticias Telemundo | May 25, 2024
Scientists explain the loss of the Humboldt Glacier {aka La Corona, or "the crown" in Spanish}, the last in the Sierra Nevada, which they believe makes the South American country the first in modern history to lose all its glaciers.
For the people of the Venezuelan state of Mérida, the glaciated peaks of its Sierra Nevada have been a source of pride since time immemorial: The mountains are part of the regional identity and the origin of various legends in the area that relate them to mythical white eagles.
However, none of the six glaciers that crowned the mountains remain ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/-great-sadness-venezuela-first-andean-countr...
Albinson Linares, Noticias Telemundo | May 25, 2024
Scientists explain the loss of the Humboldt Glacier {aka La Corona, or "the crown" in Spanish}, the last in the Sierra Nevada, which they believe makes the South American country the first in modern history to lose all its glaciers.
For the people of the Venezuelan state of Mérida, the glaciated peaks of its Sierra Nevada have been a source of pride since time immemorial: The mountains are part of the regional identity and the origin of various legends in the area that relate them to mythical white eagles.
However, none of the six glaciers that crowned the mountains remain ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/-great-sadness-venezuela-first-andean-countr...
16margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 10:30 AM · May 30, 2024 {X}:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Deaths caused by #heat in the #US and elsewhere are only heading in one direction - up. Don't expect this trend to reverse anytime soon. The #climate is heading into uncharted territory at this point and the risk of a seriously large event grows by the day.
Graph 10X heat deaths Maricopa Co., AZ 2014-2024 (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1796187309467217993/photo/1)
______________________________________
Delhi records 52.9°C, how does it compare to world record?
TOI | 29 May 2024
{Death Valley, 54.4C (2023) & 56.7C (1913)}
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/110541844.cms?utm_source=contento...
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Deaths caused by #heat in the #US and elsewhere are only heading in one direction - up. Don't expect this trend to reverse anytime soon. The #climate is heading into uncharted territory at this point and the risk of a seriously large event grows by the day.
Graph 10X heat deaths Maricopa Co., AZ 2014-2024 (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1796187309467217993/photo/1)
______________________________________
Delhi records 52.9°C, how does it compare to world record?
TOI | 29 May 2024
{Death Valley, 54.4C (2023) & 56.7C (1913)}
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/110541844.cms?utm_source=contento...
17margd
Interesting -- also, in addition to cleanup of China's smog, ships changing to cleaner fuel made for fewer particle emissions, affecting ocean temperatures...
Pollution Paradox: How Cleaning Up Smog Drives Ocean Warming
Fred Pearce • May 28, 2024
New research indicates that the decline in smog particles from China’s air cleanups caused the recent extreme heat waves in the Pacific. Scientists are grappling with the fact that reducing such pollution, while essential for public health, is also heating the atmosphere...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/aerosols-warming-climate-change
----------------------------------------------
Hai Wang et al. 2024. Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events. PNAS May 6, 2024 121 (21) e2313797121 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2313797121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313797121
Significance
The period of 2010 to 2020 has witnessed the warmest Northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperatures ever recorded, with several prolonged extreme ocean warming events. Though year-to-year internal climate variability may partially explain the appearance of these events, why they occurred dramatically more frequent remains elusive. We find that the rapid aerosol abatement in China triggers atmospheric circulation anomalies beyond its source region, driving a substantial mean surface warming in the NEP, which provides a favorable condition for extreme ocean warming events. Our findings provide an important insight into the mechanisms of the North Pacific ocean-atmosphere changes, highlighting the need to consider the exacerbated risks arising from a reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in assessment of climate change impacts.
Pollution Paradox: How Cleaning Up Smog Drives Ocean Warming
Fred Pearce • May 28, 2024
New research indicates that the decline in smog particles from China’s air cleanups caused the recent extreme heat waves in the Pacific. Scientists are grappling with the fact that reducing such pollution, while essential for public health, is also heating the atmosphere...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/aerosols-warming-climate-change
----------------------------------------------
Hai Wang et al. 2024. Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events. PNAS May 6, 2024 121 (21) e2313797121 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2313797121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313797121
Significance
The period of 2010 to 2020 has witnessed the warmest Northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperatures ever recorded, with several prolonged extreme ocean warming events. Though year-to-year internal climate variability may partially explain the appearance of these events, why they occurred dramatically more frequent remains elusive. We find that the rapid aerosol abatement in China triggers atmospheric circulation anomalies beyond its source region, driving a substantial mean surface warming in the NEP, which provides a favorable condition for extreme ocean warming events. Our findings provide an important insight into the mechanisms of the North Pacific ocean-atmosphere changes, highlighting the need to consider the exacerbated risks arising from a reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in assessment of climate change impacts.
18margd
DW News @dwnews | 10:15 PM · Jun 1, 2024:
"There is no water in the pipeline, we all rely on this water tanker."
People in India are struggling with a water shortage amid a record-breaking heat wave.
1:30 (https://x.com/dwnews/status/1797089501992645116)
_________________________________
As reservoirs go dry, Mexico City and Bogotá are staring down ‘Day Zero’
Jake Bittle | May 23, 2024
Cape Town, which beat a water crisis in 2018, holds lessons for cities grappling with an El Niño-fueled drought.
...heat dome sitting atop Mexico is shattering temperature records in Central America, and both Central and South America are wasting beneath a drought driven by the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which periodically brings exceptionally dry weather to the Southern Hemisphere. Droughts in the region have grown more intense thanks to warmer winter temperatures and long-term aridification fueled by climate change. The present dry spell has shriveled river systems in Mexico and Colombia and lowered water levels in the reservoirs that supply their growing cities. Officials in both cities have warned that, in June, their water systems might reach a “Day Zero” in which they fail altogether unless residents cut usage.
In warning about the potential for a Day Zero in the water system, both cities are referencing the famous example set by Cape Town, South Africa, which made global headlines in 2018 when it almost ran out of water. The city was months away from a total collapse of its reservoir system when it mounted an unprecedented public awareness campaign and rolled out strict fees on water consumption. These measures succeeded in pulling the city back from the brink...
https://grist.org/drought/mexico-city-bogota-water-day-zero-cape-town/
"There is no water in the pipeline, we all rely on this water tanker."
People in India are struggling with a water shortage amid a record-breaking heat wave.
1:30 (https://x.com/dwnews/status/1797089501992645116)
_________________________________
As reservoirs go dry, Mexico City and Bogotá are staring down ‘Day Zero’
Jake Bittle | May 23, 2024
Cape Town, which beat a water crisis in 2018, holds lessons for cities grappling with an El Niño-fueled drought.
...heat dome sitting atop Mexico is shattering temperature records in Central America, and both Central and South America are wasting beneath a drought driven by the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which periodically brings exceptionally dry weather to the Southern Hemisphere. Droughts in the region have grown more intense thanks to warmer winter temperatures and long-term aridification fueled by climate change. The present dry spell has shriveled river systems in Mexico and Colombia and lowered water levels in the reservoirs that supply their growing cities. Officials in both cities have warned that, in June, their water systems might reach a “Day Zero” in which they fail altogether unless residents cut usage.
In warning about the potential for a Day Zero in the water system, both cities are referencing the famous example set by Cape Town, South Africa, which made global headlines in 2018 when it almost ran out of water. The city was months away from a total collapse of its reservoir system when it mounted an unprecedented public awareness campaign and rolled out strict fees on water consumption. These measures succeeded in pulling the city back from the brink...
https://grist.org/drought/mexico-city-bogota-water-day-zero-cape-town/
19margd
Heatstroke kills 33 polling staff in a state on last day of India election
Aljazeera | 2 June 2024
While several people have died during the intense heatwave, dozens dying in one day marks an especially grim toll...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/heatstroke-kills-33-polling-staff-in-a-s...
_____________________________
Meanwhile, a year ago in Texas:
Texas governor signs bill rescinding water breaks as deadly heat grips state
Maanvi Singh | 23 Jun 2023
Measure ... will nullify ordinances enacted by Austin and Dallas that mandate 10-minute breaks for construction workers every four hours. It also prevents any other local governments from passing similar worker protections.
... the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration (Osha) does not have a national heat protection standard. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/23/greg-abbott-texas-governor-bill-...
___________________________
Dehydrated, nauseous, sunburned Floridians flood emergency rooms when temperatures rise
Cindy Krischer Goodman | June 1, 2024
State ranks second in the nation for heat-related 911 calls in May...
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/06/01/overheated-floridians-flood-emergency-ro...
-------------------------------
Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard {NEMSIS}
The Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard, created in partnership between the HHS Office of Climate Change and Health Equity and the DOT National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, uses nationally submitted Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data to track EMS responses to people experiencing heat-related emergencies in the pre-hospital setting.
https://nemsis.org/heat-related-ems-activation-surveillance-dashboard/
Aljazeera | 2 June 2024
While several people have died during the intense heatwave, dozens dying in one day marks an especially grim toll...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/heatstroke-kills-33-polling-staff-in-a-s...
_____________________________
Meanwhile, a year ago in Texas:
Texas governor signs bill rescinding water breaks as deadly heat grips state
Maanvi Singh | 23 Jun 2023
Measure ... will nullify ordinances enacted by Austin and Dallas that mandate 10-minute breaks for construction workers every four hours. It also prevents any other local governments from passing similar worker protections.
... the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration (Osha) does not have a national heat protection standard. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/23/greg-abbott-texas-governor-bill-...
___________________________
Dehydrated, nauseous, sunburned Floridians flood emergency rooms when temperatures rise
Cindy Krischer Goodman | June 1, 2024
State ranks second in the nation for heat-related 911 calls in May...
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/06/01/overheated-floridians-flood-emergency-ro...
-------------------------------
Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard {NEMSIS}
The Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard, created in partnership between the HHS Office of Climate Change and Health Equity and the DOT National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, uses nationally submitted Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data to track EMS responses to people experiencing heat-related emergencies in the pre-hospital setting.
https://nemsis.org/heat-related-ems-activation-surveillance-dashboard/
20margd
Relics of a Warmer Past, Some Species May Be Suited to a Hotter Future
E360 Digest | May 30, 2024
...By the end of this century, the planet is expected to be around as warm as it was 130,000 years ago. Species that arose during this time would be able to withstand a hotter climate, scientists say. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where heat is reaching new extremes.
Warming will diminish the variety of plants and animals residing in tropical lands, but by how much? Past research suggests these areas will see, on average, a 54 percent drop in the number of resident species. But a new modeling study, published in Nature Ecology and Evolution, puts that figure at 39 percent.
The study offers hope for some tropical species facing down a hotter future, though the findings are, researchers note, only a marginal improvement on previous estimates...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/evolution-climate-adaptation-study
E360 Digest | May 30, 2024
...By the end of this century, the planet is expected to be around as warm as it was 130,000 years ago. Species that arose during this time would be able to withstand a hotter climate, scientists say. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where heat is reaching new extremes.
Warming will diminish the variety of plants and animals residing in tropical lands, but by how much? Past research suggests these areas will see, on average, a 54 percent drop in the number of resident species. But a new modeling study, published in Nature Ecology and Evolution, puts that figure at 39 percent.
The study offers hope for some tropical species facing down a hotter future, though the findings are, researchers note, only a marginal improvement on previous estimates...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/evolution-climate-adaptation-study
21margd
Why some wild animals are getting insomnia
Benji Jones | Jun 2, 2024
Scientists put sleep trackers on a bunch of wild pigs. The results reveal a troubling trend.
...A pair of new studies on mammals in Europe shows that extreme heat impairs their sleep, too, often significantly so. Wild boars in the Czech Republic, for example, slept 17 percent less during hot, summer days, compared to colder months, one of the papers found, “potentially leading to sleep deprivation.” The other showed that deer fawns in Ireland similarly had shorter and worse quality sleep on scorching days.
Among the only studies of sleep in wild animals, the research points to yet another way that climate change will likely reshape the natural world. As summers heat up, animals might find it harder to sleep in the habitats they call home, potentially weakening their immune systems and chances of survival. It may also push these creatures to new places, where they might spread disease and disrupt carefully balanced ecosystems....
https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/353035/climate-change-sleep-wild-animals-heat
------------------------------------------
Euan Mortlock et al. 2023. Sleep in the wild: the importance of individual effects and environmental conditions on sleep behaviour in wild boar. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, May 2024, Volume 291, Issue 2023
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115
ABSTRACTt
... sleep in the wild boar (Sus scrofa) over an annual cycle. In support of the hypothesis that environmental conditions determine thermoregulatory challenges, which regulate sleep, we show that sleep quantity, efficiency and quality are reduced on warmer days, sleep is less fragmented in longer and more humid days, while greater snow cover and rainfall promote sleep quality. Importantly, this longest and most detailed analysis of sleep in wild animals to date reveals large inter- and intra-individual variation. Specifically, short-sleepers sleep up to 46% less than long-sleepers but do not compensate for their short sleep through greater plasticity or quality, suggesting they may pay higher costs of sleep deprivation. Given the major role of sleep in health, our results suggest that global warming and the associated increase in extreme climatic events are likely to negatively impact sleep, and consequently health, in wildlife, particularly in nocturnal animals.
-----------------------------------------------
Euan Mortlock et al. 2024. Early life sleep in free-living fallow deer, Dama dama: the role of ontogeny, environment and individual differences. Animal Behaviour, Volume 211, May 2024, Pages 163-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2024.03.006 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003347224000861#:~:text=Fall....
ABSTRACT
...19 free-ranging fallow deer fawns, Dama dama, during the first 5 weeks of life. Specifically, we examined how sleep developed, how it differed between and within individuals, and how it was affected by environmental conditions, using accelerometer-derived estimates of sleep and a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach. We showed that sleep duration rapidly decreased and became more consolidated, quickly approaching an adult-like condition. Moreover, fawns exhibited consistent individual differences in sleep quantity, fragmentation and quality, as well as in the rate at which sleep developed. Finally, environmental conditions affecting thermoregulation mediated sleep behaviour; sleep time was reduced and was of lower quality on warmer days, and sleep quality was further compromised in more humid conditions but was higher with greater rainfall. While sleep ontogeny in free-ranging fawns is partially shaped by the environment, our study reveals previously unknown individual differences in sleep behaviour present from birth, and in the rate of sleep development. We suggest that such individual differences may represent pace-of-life syndromes and may have important consequences for individual fitness later in life.
Benji Jones | Jun 2, 2024
Scientists put sleep trackers on a bunch of wild pigs. The results reveal a troubling trend.
...A pair of new studies on mammals in Europe shows that extreme heat impairs their sleep, too, often significantly so. Wild boars in the Czech Republic, for example, slept 17 percent less during hot, summer days, compared to colder months, one of the papers found, “potentially leading to sleep deprivation.” The other showed that deer fawns in Ireland similarly had shorter and worse quality sleep on scorching days.
Among the only studies of sleep in wild animals, the research points to yet another way that climate change will likely reshape the natural world. As summers heat up, animals might find it harder to sleep in the habitats they call home, potentially weakening their immune systems and chances of survival. It may also push these creatures to new places, where they might spread disease and disrupt carefully balanced ecosystems....
https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/353035/climate-change-sleep-wild-animals-heat
------------------------------------------
Euan Mortlock et al. 2023. Sleep in the wild: the importance of individual effects and environmental conditions on sleep behaviour in wild boar. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, May 2024, Volume 291, Issue 2023
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115
ABSTRACTt
... sleep in the wild boar (Sus scrofa) over an annual cycle. In support of the hypothesis that environmental conditions determine thermoregulatory challenges, which regulate sleep, we show that sleep quantity, efficiency and quality are reduced on warmer days, sleep is less fragmented in longer and more humid days, while greater snow cover and rainfall promote sleep quality. Importantly, this longest and most detailed analysis of sleep in wild animals to date reveals large inter- and intra-individual variation. Specifically, short-sleepers sleep up to 46% less than long-sleepers but do not compensate for their short sleep through greater plasticity or quality, suggesting they may pay higher costs of sleep deprivation. Given the major role of sleep in health, our results suggest that global warming and the associated increase in extreme climatic events are likely to negatively impact sleep, and consequently health, in wildlife, particularly in nocturnal animals.
-----------------------------------------------
Euan Mortlock et al. 2024. Early life sleep in free-living fallow deer, Dama dama: the role of ontogeny, environment and individual differences. Animal Behaviour, Volume 211, May 2024, Pages 163-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2024.03.006 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003347224000861#:~:text=Fall....
ABSTRACT
...19 free-ranging fallow deer fawns, Dama dama, during the first 5 weeks of life. Specifically, we examined how sleep developed, how it differed between and within individuals, and how it was affected by environmental conditions, using accelerometer-derived estimates of sleep and a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach. We showed that sleep duration rapidly decreased and became more consolidated, quickly approaching an adult-like condition. Moreover, fawns exhibited consistent individual differences in sleep quantity, fragmentation and quality, as well as in the rate at which sleep developed. Finally, environmental conditions affecting thermoregulation mediated sleep behaviour; sleep time was reduced and was of lower quality on warmer days, and sleep quality was further compromised in more humid conditions but was higher with greater rainfall. While sleep ontogeny in free-ranging fawns is partially shaped by the environment, our study reveals previously unknown individual differences in sleep behaviour present from birth, and in the rate of sleep development. We suggest that such individual differences may represent pace-of-life syndromes and may have important consequences for individual fitness later in life.
22margd
Anti-tobacco paradigm shift needed? (~ anti-tobacco)
Fergus Green et al. 2024. POLICY FORUM: No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need. A social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects has strong potential to contribute to achieving global climate goals. Science
30 May 2024. Vol 384, Issue 6699, pp. 954-957. DOI: 10.1126/science.adn6533 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn6533
Abstract
Global production and use of fossil fuels continue to expand, making the goals of the Paris Agreement ever more difficult to achieve. Echoing calls made by climate advocates for years, the groundbreaking decision at the United Nations (UN) climate meeting in late 2023 (COP28) calls on parties “to contribute to…transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” The normative case for ultimately phasing out fossil fuels is strong, and in some cases, it is feasible to phase out projects before the end of their economic life. However, the movement should focus on a more feasible, yet crucial, step on the road to fossil fuel phaseout: stopping fossil fuel expansion. Proponents of ambitious climate action should direct policy and advocacy efforts toward building a global “No New Fossil” norm, encompassing exploration for and development of new fossil fuel extraction sites, and permitting and construction of new, large-scale fossil fuel–consuming infrastructure.
Fergus Green et al. 2024. POLICY FORUM: No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need. A social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects has strong potential to contribute to achieving global climate goals. Science
30 May 2024. Vol 384, Issue 6699, pp. 954-957. DOI: 10.1126/science.adn6533 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn6533
Abstract
Global production and use of fossil fuels continue to expand, making the goals of the Paris Agreement ever more difficult to achieve. Echoing calls made by climate advocates for years, the groundbreaking decision at the United Nations (UN) climate meeting in late 2023 (COP28) calls on parties “to contribute to…transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” The normative case for ultimately phasing out fossil fuels is strong, and in some cases, it is feasible to phase out projects before the end of their economic life. However, the movement should focus on a more feasible, yet crucial, step on the road to fossil fuel phaseout: stopping fossil fuel expansion. Proponents of ambitious climate action should direct policy and advocacy efforts toward building a global “No New Fossil” norm, encompassing exploration for and development of new fossil fuel extraction sites, and permitting and construction of new, large-scale fossil fuel–consuming infrastructure.
23margd
UN chief says world is on ‘highway to climate hell’ as planet endures 12 straight months of unprecedented heat
Laura Paddison | June 5, 2024
...Every single month from June 2023 to May 2024 was the world’s hottest such month on record, Copernicus data showed {the European Union’s climate monitoring service.}.
The 12-month heat streak was “shocking but not surprising” given human-caused climate change, said Carlo Buontempo, the director of Copernicus, who warned of worse to come. Unless planet-warming fossil fuel pollution is slashed, “this string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold,” he said.
Copernicus released its data the same day as United Nations Secretary General António Guterres made an impassioned speech in New York about climate change, slamming fossil fuel companies as the “godfathers of climate chaos” and, for the first time, explicitly calling on all countries to ban advertising their fossil fuel products.
Guterres urged world leaders to swiftly take control of the spiraling climate crisis or face dangerous tipping points. “We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” he said Wednesday. “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.” ...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/climate/12-months-record-heat-un-speech/index.htm...
Laura Paddison | June 5, 2024
...Every single month from June 2023 to May 2024 was the world’s hottest such month on record, Copernicus data showed {the European Union’s climate monitoring service.}.
The 12-month heat streak was “shocking but not surprising” given human-caused climate change, said Carlo Buontempo, the director of Copernicus, who warned of worse to come. Unless planet-warming fossil fuel pollution is slashed, “this string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold,” he said.
Copernicus released its data the same day as United Nations Secretary General António Guterres made an impassioned speech in New York about climate change, slamming fossil fuel companies as the “godfathers of climate chaos” and, for the first time, explicitly calling on all countries to ban advertising their fossil fuel products.
Guterres urged world leaders to swiftly take control of the spiraling climate crisis or face dangerous tipping points. “We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” he said Wednesday. “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.” ...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/05/climate/12-months-record-heat-un-speech/index.htm...
24kiparsky
Alameda blocks geoengineering test
I'm a bit baffled by this. I can understand how the word "geoengineering" sounds scary to people who are not familiar with what it involves, but we're not exactly at a stage in human history where we can be choosy. Temperatures in the hotter regions of the globe, including notably New Delhi, are rising to the point where megadeath heat events are now a certainty in the next one to two decades. Even if we were to stop burning all fossil fuels tomorrow, global temperatures would still be rising for decades or centuries as the CO2 in the atmosphere continues to do its work. Even given a few technical, social, and political miracles, it's safe to say that nobody reading this will ever live in a world where global temperatures are not rising.
Under these circumstances, what sense does it make to block experiments aimed at understanding techniques that can cool the atmosphere?
It seems to me that far too many people, including those in positions to make important decisions, really don't understand the sort of stakes that we're playing for now. For what it's worth, just one threatened city, New Delhi, has a population of 33 million people. There is literally no way to evacuate those people to cooler climes, and there are no cooler climes that are willing to accept that many people. And that's just one of the cities tied to the track of this disaster, which, again, is not a matter of "if", but of "when".
While I understand that the idealists object to these technologies on idealistic grounds, but weighed against the impending deaths of literally hundreds of millions of people, the warm comfort of idle idealism seems like a luxury that we can't really afford.
I'm a bit baffled by this. I can understand how the word "geoengineering" sounds scary to people who are not familiar with what it involves, but we're not exactly at a stage in human history where we can be choosy. Temperatures in the hotter regions of the globe, including notably New Delhi, are rising to the point where megadeath heat events are now a certainty in the next one to two decades. Even if we were to stop burning all fossil fuels tomorrow, global temperatures would still be rising for decades or centuries as the CO2 in the atmosphere continues to do its work. Even given a few technical, social, and political miracles, it's safe to say that nobody reading this will ever live in a world where global temperatures are not rising.
Under these circumstances, what sense does it make to block experiments aimed at understanding techniques that can cool the atmosphere?
It seems to me that far too many people, including those in positions to make important decisions, really don't understand the sort of stakes that we're playing for now. For what it's worth, just one threatened city, New Delhi, has a population of 33 million people. There is literally no way to evacuate those people to cooler climes, and there are no cooler climes that are willing to accept that many people. And that's just one of the cities tied to the track of this disaster, which, again, is not a matter of "if", but of "when".
While I understand that the idealists object to these technologies on idealistic grounds, but weighed against the impending deaths of literally hundreds of millions of people, the warm comfort of idle idealism seems like a luxury that we can't really afford.
25margd
Everyone You Know Will Eventually Be Highly Vulnerable to Extreme Heat
Zahra Hirji | June 7, 2024
As we get older, our bodies become less adept at responding to high temperatures. On a warming planet with an aging population, that’s a problem.
When a heat dome shattered temperature records across the Western US and Canada in June 2021, the resulting fatalities exposed a pattern. In Portland, Oregon, and surrounding Multnomah County, 56 of the 72 people who died were aged 60 and up. In British Columbia, people 60-plus accounted for 555 of the 619 fatalities. Just over a year later, a sizzling June, July and August in England caused roughly 2,800 excess deaths among people 65 and older. More than 1,000 of them occurred over four days in late July.
...As we age, our ability to adapt to heat diminishes.
...sweat, which releases heat when it evaporates. Compared to young and middle-aged people, older people don’t sweat as much
...increased circulation of blood, which draws heat from deep inside the body to the skin, where it can escape. The heart has to sometimes pump two to four times more blood each minute than it would on a cooler day
...Many of the medications used to treat {chronic} health conditions also impair {heat} response, such as by decreasing the ability to sweat or increasing urination that can trigger dehydration.
...warning signs of dangerous heat can also be more difficult for older people to self-identify.
...Many older adults also live alone and are socially isolated, making them less likely to have a support network.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-07/why-older-adults-are-uniquely...
Zahra Hirji | June 7, 2024
As we get older, our bodies become less adept at responding to high temperatures. On a warming planet with an aging population, that’s a problem.
When a heat dome shattered temperature records across the Western US and Canada in June 2021, the resulting fatalities exposed a pattern. In Portland, Oregon, and surrounding Multnomah County, 56 of the 72 people who died were aged 60 and up. In British Columbia, people 60-plus accounted for 555 of the 619 fatalities. Just over a year later, a sizzling June, July and August in England caused roughly 2,800 excess deaths among people 65 and older. More than 1,000 of them occurred over four days in late July.
...As we age, our ability to adapt to heat diminishes.
...sweat, which releases heat when it evaporates. Compared to young and middle-aged people, older people don’t sweat as much
...increased circulation of blood, which draws heat from deep inside the body to the skin, where it can escape. The heart has to sometimes pump two to four times more blood each minute than it would on a cooler day
...Many of the medications used to treat {chronic} health conditions also impair {heat} response, such as by decreasing the ability to sweat or increasing urination that can trigger dehydration.
...warning signs of dangerous heat can also be more difficult for older people to self-identify.
...Many older adults also live alone and are socially isolated, making them less likely to have a support network.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-07/why-older-adults-are-uniquely...
26margd
Canada is not worried about just climate emergencies, but quite a few are...
Disruptions on the Horizon
Policy Horizons Canada | 2024
37 p
... Conclusion
What could the future look like if Canadians cannot meet their basic needs? Or if the healthcare system collapses, democracies break down globally, or cyberattacks regularly disrupt everyday life? What if these disruptions occur at the same time, creating a perfect storm and a unique set of combined circumstances for Canada to face?
More than ever, the world is filled with uncertainty and unpredictability. A disruption’s impact could depend on the scale and speed with which it occurs, and how it interacts with other disruptions. Being aware of possible future disruptions and prepared for various scenarios can help mitigate risk and help anticipate what is on the horizon. While the disruptions in this report are not guaranteed to take place, they are plausible—and overlooking them may carry risks in various policy areas.
These disruptions can help decision makers think through what could occur and prepare for a wide range of possibilities. They can also facilitate conversation about policy, decision making, and how these situations might play out. Foresight and conversations about future disruptions can help Canada’s leaders identify challenges, harness possibilities, and create resilient, sustainable policy in the face of the unexpected.
https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/disruptions/
Disruptions on the Horizon
Policy Horizons Canada | 2024
37 p
... Conclusion
What could the future look like if Canadians cannot meet their basic needs? Or if the healthcare system collapses, democracies break down globally, or cyberattacks regularly disrupt everyday life? What if these disruptions occur at the same time, creating a perfect storm and a unique set of combined circumstances for Canada to face?
More than ever, the world is filled with uncertainty and unpredictability. A disruption’s impact could depend on the scale and speed with which it occurs, and how it interacts with other disruptions. Being aware of possible future disruptions and prepared for various scenarios can help mitigate risk and help anticipate what is on the horizon. While the disruptions in this report are not guaranteed to take place, they are plausible—and overlooking them may carry risks in various policy areas.
These disruptions can help decision makers think through what could occur and prepare for a wide range of possibilities. They can also facilitate conversation about policy, decision making, and how these situations might play out. Foresight and conversations about future disruptions can help Canada’s leaders identify challenges, harness possibilities, and create resilient, sustainable policy in the face of the unexpected.
https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/disruptions/
27margd
It seemed to me that fed (NMFS) authority in coastal fishing was already exceedingly weak... Ironic and sad that a challenge to NMFS could weaken fed regulation in such areas as pollution, climate change, and endangered species...
A Key Court Ruling Could Weaken U.S. Environmental Protections
Jody Freeman | June 12, 2024
The U.S. Supreme Court ... scrapping the Chevron doctrine could have major impacts on federal regulation in such areas as pollution, climate change, and endangered species...
The 1984 case Chevron v. National Resources Defense Council, says that where Congress has not expressed itself clearly, leaving gaps or ambiguities in federal statutes, agencies should be allowed to adopt the interpretation they prefer, so long as that interpretation is reasonable.
The cases now before the Supreme Court — Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo and Relentless Inc. v. Department of Commerce — were brought by commercial fishing groups challenging a National Marine Fisheries Service rule, and a decision is expected in the coming weeks. ...
Overturning Chevron would reduce government’s ability to respond to new scientific findings and technological developments.
If Chevron is abandoned, agencies will have to defend every interpretive choice as the single best way to read a statute.
Agency officials are more expert in regulatory implementation and more politically accountable than are federal judges.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/chevron-doctrine-supreme-court
A Key Court Ruling Could Weaken U.S. Environmental Protections
Jody Freeman | June 12, 2024
The U.S. Supreme Court ... scrapping the Chevron doctrine could have major impacts on federal regulation in such areas as pollution, climate change, and endangered species...
The 1984 case Chevron v. National Resources Defense Council, says that where Congress has not expressed itself clearly, leaving gaps or ambiguities in federal statutes, agencies should be allowed to adopt the interpretation they prefer, so long as that interpretation is reasonable.
The cases now before the Supreme Court — Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo and Relentless Inc. v. Department of Commerce — were brought by commercial fishing groups challenging a National Marine Fisheries Service rule, and a decision is expected in the coming weeks. ...
Overturning Chevron would reduce government’s ability to respond to new scientific findings and technological developments.
If Chevron is abandoned, agencies will have to defend every interpretive choice as the single best way to read a statute.
Agency officials are more expert in regulatory implementation and more politically accountable than are federal judges.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/chevron-doctrine-supreme-court
28margd
‘It’s unbearable’: in ever-hotter US cities, air conditioning is no longer enough
Delaney Nolan | 11 Jun 2024
Record-breaking temperatures in the last few years shatter the myth that air conditioning alone will keep people safe
...“The home environment can actually be a substantial risk in and of itself,” said Jaime Madrigano, a public health researcher with Johns Hopkins University. “We find, during extreme heat events, that more people die in their homes than in other types of places. They’re not making it to the hospital.”
Storm-battered homes ... lack proper insulation. Power grids stumble and fail during periods of high demand. And many cooling systems are simply not powerful enough to contend with the worsening heat. Some experts have begun to warn of the looming threat of a “Heat Katrina” – a mass-casualty heat event. A study* published last year that modeled heatwave-related blackouts in different cities showed that a two-day blackout in Phoenix could lead to the deaths of more than 12,000 people...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/11/air-conditioning-protect...
----------------------------------------
* Brian Stone Jr. et al. 2023. How Blackouts during Heat Waves Amplify Mortality and Morbidity Risk. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2023, 57, 22, 8245–8255. Publication Date:May 23, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588
Abstract
The recent concurrence of electrical grid failure events in time with extreme temperatures is compounding the population health risks of extreme weather episodes. Here, we combine simulated heat exposure data during historical heat wave events in three large U.S. cities to assess the degree to which heat-related mortality and morbidity change in response to a concurrent electrical grid failure event. We develop a novel approach to estimating individually experienced temperature to approximate how personal-level heat exposure changes on an hourly basis, accounting for both outdoor and building-interior exposures. We find the concurrence of a multiday blackout event with heat wave conditions to more than double the estimated rate of heat-related mortality across all three cities, and to require medical attention for between 3% (Atlanta) and more than 50% (Phoenix) of the total urban population in present and future time periods. Our results highlight the need for enhanced electrical grid resilience and support a more spatially expansive use of tree canopy and high albedo roofing materials to lessen heat exposures during compound climate and infrastructure failure events.
Delaney Nolan | 11 Jun 2024
Record-breaking temperatures in the last few years shatter the myth that air conditioning alone will keep people safe
...“The home environment can actually be a substantial risk in and of itself,” said Jaime Madrigano, a public health researcher with Johns Hopkins University. “We find, during extreme heat events, that more people die in their homes than in other types of places. They’re not making it to the hospital.”
Storm-battered homes ... lack proper insulation. Power grids stumble and fail during periods of high demand. And many cooling systems are simply not powerful enough to contend with the worsening heat. Some experts have begun to warn of the looming threat of a “Heat Katrina” – a mass-casualty heat event. A study* published last year that modeled heatwave-related blackouts in different cities showed that a two-day blackout in Phoenix could lead to the deaths of more than 12,000 people...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/11/air-conditioning-protect...
----------------------------------------
* Brian Stone Jr. et al. 2023. How Blackouts during Heat Waves Amplify Mortality and Morbidity Risk. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2023, 57, 22, 8245–8255. Publication Date:May 23, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588
Abstract
The recent concurrence of electrical grid failure events in time with extreme temperatures is compounding the population health risks of extreme weather episodes. Here, we combine simulated heat exposure data during historical heat wave events in three large U.S. cities to assess the degree to which heat-related mortality and morbidity change in response to a concurrent electrical grid failure event. We develop a novel approach to estimating individually experienced temperature to approximate how personal-level heat exposure changes on an hourly basis, accounting for both outdoor and building-interior exposures. We find the concurrence of a multiday blackout event with heat wave conditions to more than double the estimated rate of heat-related mortality across all three cities, and to require medical attention for between 3% (Atlanta) and more than 50% (Phoenix) of the total urban population in present and future time periods. Our results highlight the need for enhanced electrical grid resilience and support a more spatially expansive use of tree canopy and high albedo roofing materials to lessen heat exposures during compound climate and infrastructure failure events.
29kiparsky
Environmental Defense Fund to study solar geo
At last, a tepid commitment to investigate a technology that might buy us a little more time.
I note that there's the requisite hand-wringing about so-called "moral hazard" - "what if we make things less bad and some people don't die and then industry emits more CO2" - but whatever. At least they're finally willing to ask the right question, which is "how does this actually work and what, if anything, is it good for?".
At last, a tepid commitment to investigate a technology that might buy us a little more time.
I note that there's the requisite hand-wringing about so-called "moral hazard" - "what if we make things less bad and some people don't die and then industry emits more CO2" - but whatever. At least they're finally willing to ask the right question, which is "how does this actually work and what, if anything, is it good for?".
30margd
Trump will dismantle key US weather and science agency, climate experts fear
Dharna Noor | 26 Apr 2024
Climate experts fear Donald Trump will follow a blueprint created by his allies to gut the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), disbanding its work on climate science and tailoring its operations to business interests.
...The plan to “break up Noaa is laid out in the Project 2025 document written by more than 350 rightwingers and helmed by the Heritage Foundation. Called the Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise, it is meant to guide the first 180 days of presidency for an incoming Republican president...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/trump-presidency-gut-noaa-weathe...
Dharna Noor | 26 Apr 2024
Climate experts fear Donald Trump will follow a blueprint created by his allies to gut the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), disbanding its work on climate science and tailoring its operations to business interests.
...The plan to “break up Noaa is laid out in the Project 2025 document written by more than 350 rightwingers and helmed by the Heritage Foundation. Called the Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise, it is meant to guide the first 180 days of presidency for an incoming Republican president...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/trump-presidency-gut-noaa-weathe...
31margd
Even with windows open, DIY Corsi-Rosenthal air filter box helps clear particulate matter (PM), e.g., smoke generated by wildfires. (We used one on hot, smoky days last summer -- in place w/o AC.)
New research: DIY air filters work better than commercial HEPA filters for fraction of cost
Nicole Pomerantz | June 07, 2024
https://news.asu.edu/20240607-health-and-medicine-new-research-diy-air-filters-w...
---------------------------------------------
Megan L. Jehn et al. 2024. Effectiveness of do-it-yourself air cleaners in reducing exposure to respiratory aerosols in US classrooms: A longitudinal study of public schools. Building and Environment, Volume 258, 15 June 2024, 111603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2024.111603 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360132324004451
---------------------------------------------
How Can You Make a Corsi-Rosenthal Box?
4 MERV 13 filters
Duct tape
A 20-inch box fan
A cardboard box (you can use the one the fan came in)
Scissors
https://www.webmd.com/allergies/corsi-rosenthal-box
New research: DIY air filters work better than commercial HEPA filters for fraction of cost
Nicole Pomerantz | June 07, 2024
https://news.asu.edu/20240607-health-and-medicine-new-research-diy-air-filters-w...
---------------------------------------------
Megan L. Jehn et al. 2024. Effectiveness of do-it-yourself air cleaners in reducing exposure to respiratory aerosols in US classrooms: A longitudinal study of public schools. Building and Environment, Volume 258, 15 June 2024, 111603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2024.111603 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360132324004451
---------------------------------------------
How Can You Make a Corsi-Rosenthal Box?
4 MERV 13 filters
Duct tape
A 20-inch box fan
A cardboard box (you can use the one the fan came in)
Scissors
https://www.webmd.com/allergies/corsi-rosenthal-box
32margd
Planet-first diet cuts risk of early death by nearly a third, study says
Sandee LaMotte | June 10, 2024
...higher consumption of a rainbow of fruits and vegetables, whole grains, legumes and other plant-based proteins while reducing meat and dairy to small portions.
...Eating a planet-healthy diet ... cut land use by 51%, greenhouse gas emissions by 29% and fertilizer use by 21%...
...The top 10% of people who followed the Eat-Lancet planetary diet were 30% less likely to die prematurely from any cause than those in the bottom 10%...
In addition, those who most closely followed the planetary diet had a 28% lower risk of neurodegenerative mortality, a 14% lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease, a 10% lower risk of dying from cancer and a 47% lower risk of dying from a respiratory disease, which applied to nonsmokers as well...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/health/planetary-diet-longevity-study-wellness/in...
---------------------------------------------
Linh P Bui ET AL. 2024. Planetary Health Diet Index and risk of total and cause-specific mortality in three prospective cohorts. Am J Clinical Nutrition
Published:June 10, 2024 DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajcnut.2024.03.019
https://ajcn.nutrition.org/article/S0002-9165(24)00389-7/abstract
Sandee LaMotte | June 10, 2024
...higher consumption of a rainbow of fruits and vegetables, whole grains, legumes and other plant-based proteins while reducing meat and dairy to small portions.
...Eating a planet-healthy diet ... cut land use by 51%, greenhouse gas emissions by 29% and fertilizer use by 21%...
...The top 10% of people who followed the Eat-Lancet planetary diet were 30% less likely to die prematurely from any cause than those in the bottom 10%...
In addition, those who most closely followed the planetary diet had a 28% lower risk of neurodegenerative mortality, a 14% lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease, a 10% lower risk of dying from cancer and a 47% lower risk of dying from a respiratory disease, which applied to nonsmokers as well...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/health/planetary-diet-longevity-study-wellness/in...
---------------------------------------------
Linh P Bui ET AL. 2024. Planetary Health Diet Index and risk of total and cause-specific mortality in three prospective cohorts. Am J Clinical Nutrition
Published:June 10, 2024 DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajcnut.2024.03.019
https://ajcn.nutrition.org/article/S0002-9165(24)00389-7/abstract
33margd
Seas in the Southern United States have risen dramatically since 2010 {6"-7" in Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean}. The extra water has upended life — flooding homes, choking septic systems and deluging roads.
Where seas are rising at alarming speed
Mooney et al. 2024
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-...
Where seas are rising at alarming speed
Mooney et al. 2024
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-...
34margd
Some gray whales on the Oregon coast are shrinking.
Researchers said the shift in size is dramatic, comparable to the average American woman going from 5 feet, 4 inches to 4 feet, 8 inches in just 20 years.
It’s Not Just Fish — Some Gray Whales Are Shrinking Too
E360 Digest | June 17, 2024
...200 whales that linger in the warm, shallow waters along the coast of Oregon and tend to be in worse shape than other gray whales ... while a whale born in the year 2000 could be expected to grow to around 40 feet in length, a whale born in 2020 would end up closer to 35 feet in length.
...echoes other research finding that many fish, birds, and amphibians are shrinking, and that climate change may be playing a role. One explanation is that smaller creatures cope better with high heat. Another is that in a hotter, more turbulent world, some animals are not getting enough to eat, and so are not growing to full size.
...a drop in size poses a threat to the long-term survival of the Oregon gray whales. Shorter whales tend to have smaller reserves of blubber, meaning they have less energy stored away for lean times. Experts worry that these shorter whales will have a harder time recovering from boat collisions and other injuries, and may struggle to reproduce.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/pacific-gray-whales-shrinking
---------------------------------------------
Enrico Pirotta and K. C. Bierlich et al. 2024. Modeling individual growth reveals decreasing gray whale body length and correlations with ocean climate indices at multiple scales. Global Change Biology. First published: 07 June 2024. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17366 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17366
Researchers said the shift in size is dramatic, comparable to the average American woman going from 5 feet, 4 inches to 4 feet, 8 inches in just 20 years.
It’s Not Just Fish — Some Gray Whales Are Shrinking Too
E360 Digest | June 17, 2024
...200 whales that linger in the warm, shallow waters along the coast of Oregon and tend to be in worse shape than other gray whales ... while a whale born in the year 2000 could be expected to grow to around 40 feet in length, a whale born in 2020 would end up closer to 35 feet in length.
...echoes other research finding that many fish, birds, and amphibians are shrinking, and that climate change may be playing a role. One explanation is that smaller creatures cope better with high heat. Another is that in a hotter, more turbulent world, some animals are not getting enough to eat, and so are not growing to full size.
...a drop in size poses a threat to the long-term survival of the Oregon gray whales. Shorter whales tend to have smaller reserves of blubber, meaning they have less energy stored away for lean times. Experts worry that these shorter whales will have a harder time recovering from boat collisions and other injuries, and may struggle to reproduce.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/pacific-gray-whales-shrinking
---------------------------------------------
Enrico Pirotta and K. C. Bierlich et al. 2024. Modeling individual growth reveals decreasing gray whale body length and correlations with ocean climate indices at multiple scales. Global Change Biology. First published: 07 June 2024. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17366 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17366
35margd
Herd of 170 bison could help store CO2 equivalent of 43,000 cars, researchers say
Graeme Green | 15 May 2024
...A herd of 170 bison reintroduced to Romania’s Țarcu mountains could help store CO2 emissions equivalent to removing 43,000 US cars from the road for a year, research has found, demonstrating how the animals can help mitigate some effects of the climate crisis.
...The European bison herd grazing in an area of nearly 50 sq km of grasslands within the wider Țarcu mountains was found to potentially capture an additional 54,000 tonnes of carbon a year. That is nearly 9.8 times more carbon than without the bison ... corresponds to the yearly CO2 released by a median of 43,000 average US petrol cars...
Prof Oswald Schmitz of the Yale School of the Environment ... said: “Bison influence grassland and forest ecosystems by grazing grasslands evenly, recycling nutrients to fertilise the soil and all of its life, dispersing seeds to enrich the ecosystem, and compacting the soil to prevent stored carbon from being released...
... Schmitz said the team had looked at nine species in detail, including tropical forest elephants, musk oxen and sea otters, and had begun to investigate others. He added: “Many of them show similar promise to these bison, often doubling an ecosystem’s capacity to draw down and store carbon, and sometimes much more. This really is a policy option with massive potential.”
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/15/bison-romania-tarcu-...
Graeme Green | 15 May 2024
...A herd of 170 bison reintroduced to Romania’s Țarcu mountains could help store CO2 emissions equivalent to removing 43,000 US cars from the road for a year, research has found, demonstrating how the animals can help mitigate some effects of the climate crisis.
...The European bison herd grazing in an area of nearly 50 sq km of grasslands within the wider Țarcu mountains was found to potentially capture an additional 54,000 tonnes of carbon a year. That is nearly 9.8 times more carbon than without the bison ... corresponds to the yearly CO2 released by a median of 43,000 average US petrol cars...
Prof Oswald Schmitz of the Yale School of the Environment ... said: “Bison influence grassland and forest ecosystems by grazing grasslands evenly, recycling nutrients to fertilise the soil and all of its life, dispersing seeds to enrich the ecosystem, and compacting the soil to prevent stored carbon from being released...
... Schmitz said the team had looked at nine species in detail, including tropical forest elephants, musk oxen and sea otters, and had begun to investigate others. He added: “Many of them show similar promise to these bison, often doubling an ecosystem’s capacity to draw down and store carbon, and sometimes much more. This really is a policy option with massive potential.”
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/15/bison-romania-tarcu-...
362wonderY
>35 margd: Farmers are doing it. It’s called multi-paddock grazing.
https://foundationfar.org/impact/breakthroughs/adaptive-multi-paddock-grazing-be...
https://foundationfar.org/impact/breakthroughs/adaptive-multi-paddock-grazing-be...
37margd
What is cloud seeding and did it cause Dubai flooding?
Mark Poynting & Marco Silva | 17 April 2024
...Dubai is situated on the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and is usually very dry. But while it receives less than 100mm (3.9in) a year of rainfall on average, it does experience occasional extreme downpours.
In the city of Al-Ain - just over 100km (62 miles) from Dubai - about 256mm (10in) of rain was recorded in just 24 hours. {mid-April 2024}
A "cut off" low pressure weather system, which drew in warm, moist air and blocked other weather systems from coming through was the main cause.
"This part of the world is characterised by long periods without rain and then irregular, heavy rainfall, but even so, this was a very rare rainfall event," explains Prof Maarten Ambaum, a meteorologist at the University of Reading who has studied rainfall patterns in the Gulf region.
...Earlier reports by Bloomberg suggested cloud seeding planes were deployed on Sunday and Monday, but not on Tuesday, when the flooding occurred.
..."Even if cloud seeding did encourage clouds around Dubai to drop water, the atmosphere would have likely been carrying more water to form clouds in the first place, because of climate change", says {Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London.}.
Cloud seeding is generally deployed when conditions of wind, moisture and dust are insufficient to lead to rain. In the last week, forecasters had warned of a high flooding risk across the Gulf...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68839043.amp
---------------------------------------
K. Koteswara Rao et al. 2024. Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations. Scientific Reports volume 14, Article number: 151 (2 Jan 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-49910-8
Abstract
...This study represents the first attempt ... to project the regional patterns of precipitation regime across the Arabian Peninsula. Results suggest that the annual precipitation is expected to increase over most of the UAE by up to 30%, particularly intense from the mid-future onwards in all scenarios. Specifically, the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation extremes such as intensity, 1-day highest precipitation, and precipitation exceeding 10 mm days are increasing; in contrast, the consecutive dry days may decrease towards the end of the century. The results show that the changes in extreme precipitation under a warming scenario relative to the historical period indicate progressive wetting across UAE, accompanied by increased heavy precipitation events and reduced dry spell events, particularly under the high emission scenarios...
Mark Poynting & Marco Silva | 17 April 2024
...Dubai is situated on the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and is usually very dry. But while it receives less than 100mm (3.9in) a year of rainfall on average, it does experience occasional extreme downpours.
In the city of Al-Ain - just over 100km (62 miles) from Dubai - about 256mm (10in) of rain was recorded in just 24 hours. {mid-April 2024}
A "cut off" low pressure weather system, which drew in warm, moist air and blocked other weather systems from coming through was the main cause.
"This part of the world is characterised by long periods without rain and then irregular, heavy rainfall, but even so, this was a very rare rainfall event," explains Prof Maarten Ambaum, a meteorologist at the University of Reading who has studied rainfall patterns in the Gulf region.
...Earlier reports by Bloomberg suggested cloud seeding planes were deployed on Sunday and Monday, but not on Tuesday, when the flooding occurred.
..."Even if cloud seeding did encourage clouds around Dubai to drop water, the atmosphere would have likely been carrying more water to form clouds in the first place, because of climate change", says {Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London.}.
Cloud seeding is generally deployed when conditions of wind, moisture and dust are insufficient to lead to rain. In the last week, forecasters had warned of a high flooding risk across the Gulf...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68839043.amp
---------------------------------------
K. Koteswara Rao et al. 2024. Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations. Scientific Reports volume 14, Article number: 151 (2 Jan 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-49910-8
Abstract
...This study represents the first attempt ... to project the regional patterns of precipitation regime across the Arabian Peninsula. Results suggest that the annual precipitation is expected to increase over most of the UAE by up to 30%, particularly intense from the mid-future onwards in all scenarios. Specifically, the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation extremes such as intensity, 1-day highest precipitation, and precipitation exceeding 10 mm days are increasing; in contrast, the consecutive dry days may decrease towards the end of the century. The results show that the changes in extreme precipitation under a warming scenario relative to the historical period indicate progressive wetting across UAE, accompanied by increased heavy precipitation events and reduced dry spell events, particularly under the high emission scenarios...
38margd
Miami entering a state of unreality: Adaptation to climate change can’t fix the city’s water problems
Mario Alejandro Ariza/Floodlight | Jun 19, 2024
...This glittering city was built on a drained swamp and sits atop porous limestone; as the sea keeps rising, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that south Florida could see almost 11 extra inches of ocean by 2040.
Sunny-day flooding, when high tides gurgle up and soak low-lying ground, have increased 400% since 1998, with a significant increase after 2006; a major hurricane strike with a significant storm surge could displace up to 1 million people. And with every passing year, the region’s infrastructure seems more ill-equipped to deal with these dangers, despite billions of dollars spent on adaptation.
... as atmospheric concentrations of carbon reach levels not seen in 3 million years, politicians promise resilience while ignoring emissions; developers race to build a bounty of luxury condos, never mind the swiftly rising sea. Florida is entering a subtropical state of unreality in which these decisions don’t add up.
A massive network of canals keeps this region from reverting to a swamp, and sea-level rise is making operating them more challenging. ... The majority of these canals drain to the sea during low tides using gravity...
...Gov. Ron DeSantis and his administration have attempted to address the havoc caused by the changing climate with his $1.8 billion Resilient Florida Program, an initiative to help communities adapt to sea-level rise and more intense flooding.
But the governor has also signed a bill into law that would make the term “climate change” largely verboten in state statutes. That same bill effectively boosted the use of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, in Florida by reducing regulations on gas pipelines and increasing protections on gas stoves.
In a post on X the day he signed the bill, DeSantis called this “restoring sanity in our approach to energy and rejecting the agenda of the radical green zealots.”
...In Miami, as the water levels rise, researchers predict that low-lying neighborhoods across the region will lose population. Eventually, Florida’s policies of agnostic adaptation will have to deal with this looming reality, where adaptation is clearly impossible, and retreat may be the only option left....
https://floodlightnews.org/miami-entering-a-state-of-unreality-adaptation-to-cli...
Mario Alejandro Ariza/Floodlight | Jun 19, 2024
...This glittering city was built on a drained swamp and sits atop porous limestone; as the sea keeps rising, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that south Florida could see almost 11 extra inches of ocean by 2040.
Sunny-day flooding, when high tides gurgle up and soak low-lying ground, have increased 400% since 1998, with a significant increase after 2006; a major hurricane strike with a significant storm surge could displace up to 1 million people. And with every passing year, the region’s infrastructure seems more ill-equipped to deal with these dangers, despite billions of dollars spent on adaptation.
... as atmospheric concentrations of carbon reach levels not seen in 3 million years, politicians promise resilience while ignoring emissions; developers race to build a bounty of luxury condos, never mind the swiftly rising sea. Florida is entering a subtropical state of unreality in which these decisions don’t add up.
A massive network of canals keeps this region from reverting to a swamp, and sea-level rise is making operating them more challenging. ... The majority of these canals drain to the sea during low tides using gravity...
...Gov. Ron DeSantis and his administration have attempted to address the havoc caused by the changing climate with his $1.8 billion Resilient Florida Program, an initiative to help communities adapt to sea-level rise and more intense flooding.
But the governor has also signed a bill into law that would make the term “climate change” largely verboten in state statutes. That same bill effectively boosted the use of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, in Florida by reducing regulations on gas pipelines and increasing protections on gas stoves.
In a post on X the day he signed the bill, DeSantis called this “restoring sanity in our approach to energy and rejecting the agenda of the radical green zealots.”
...In Miami, as the water levels rise, researchers predict that low-lying neighborhoods across the region will lose population. Eventually, Florida’s policies of agnostic adaptation will have to deal with this looming reality, where adaptation is clearly impossible, and retreat may be the only option left....
https://floodlightnews.org/miami-entering-a-state-of-unreality-adaptation-to-cli...
39margd
Hundreds of Hajj pilgrims die as Mecca temperatures hit 120 Fahrenheit
Lauren Kent, Caroline Faraj and Hande Atay Alam | June 20, 2024
More than 300 people have died and thousands have been treated for heatstroke while performing the annual Muslim Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca amid extreme temperatures of up to 49 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit).
At least 165 Indonesians, 68 Jordanians, 35 Pakistanis, 35 Tunisians and 11 Iranians have died, according to authorities in each country. A further 22 Jordanians are hospitalized and 16 are still missing, the Jordanian Foreign Ministry said. Dozens of Iranians have also been hospitalized due to heatstroke and other conditions, the Iranian Red Crescent said Wednesday, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.
The death toll is likely to rise, as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have yet to release official figures. Additionally, the governments are only aware of pilgrims who have registered and traveled to Mecca as part of their country’s quota – more deaths are feared among unregistered pilgrims.
... This year's Hajj fell in one of the hottest months in Mecca. Mecca's average maximum temperature in June is nearly 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). But this year Hajj pilgrims experienced unusually extreme heat, with temperatures soaring to 52 degrees Celsius (125.6 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/19/middleeast/hajj-deaths-mecca-extreme-heat-intl-la...
Lauren Kent, Caroline Faraj and Hande Atay Alam | June 20, 2024
More than 300 people have died and thousands have been treated for heatstroke while performing the annual Muslim Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca amid extreme temperatures of up to 49 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit).
At least 165 Indonesians, 68 Jordanians, 35 Pakistanis, 35 Tunisians and 11 Iranians have died, according to authorities in each country. A further 22 Jordanians are hospitalized and 16 are still missing, the Jordanian Foreign Ministry said. Dozens of Iranians have also been hospitalized due to heatstroke and other conditions, the Iranian Red Crescent said Wednesday, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.
The death toll is likely to rise, as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have yet to release official figures. Additionally, the governments are only aware of pilgrims who have registered and traveled to Mecca as part of their country’s quota – more deaths are feared among unregistered pilgrims.
... This year's Hajj fell in one of the hottest months in Mecca. Mecca's average maximum temperature in June is nearly 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). But this year Hajj pilgrims experienced unusually extreme heat, with temperatures soaring to 52 degrees Celsius (125.6 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/19/middleeast/hajj-deaths-mecca-extreme-heat-intl-la...
40margd
Water shortages in Iran cause ground to give away
Shabnam von Hein | June 19, 2024
A drought in Iran is causing the ground to subside, threatening Tehran and hundreds of other towns.
...The number of climate refugees within Iran has risen by 800,000 in the last two years alone, according to Iranian Environment Agency statistics published in May. These are people who have been forced to move to the northern provinces and cities around Tehran due to climate change, and in particular, because of water shortages in central and southern Iran.
At least 30 million people — over a third of Iran's total population of 83 million people — have moved within the country over the last 30 years in the hopes of a better life. Three quarters of Iran's total landmass is considered completely arid...
https://www.dw.com/en/water-shortages-in-iran-cause-ground-to-give-away/a-694059...
Shabnam von Hein | June 19, 2024
A drought in Iran is causing the ground to subside, threatening Tehran and hundreds of other towns.
...The number of climate refugees within Iran has risen by 800,000 in the last two years alone, according to Iranian Environment Agency statistics published in May. These are people who have been forced to move to the northern provinces and cities around Tehran due to climate change, and in particular, because of water shortages in central and southern Iran.
At least 30 million people — over a third of Iran's total population of 83 million people — have moved within the country over the last 30 years in the hopes of a better life. Three quarters of Iran's total landmass is considered completely arid...
https://www.dw.com/en/water-shortages-in-iran-cause-ground-to-give-away/a-694059...
41margd
As in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria destroyed grid infrastructure, war-stressed Ukraine reaches for decentralized renewable energy:
Ukraine plans solar expansion to stabilize energy security
DW | 20 June 2024
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy plans to expand the construction of solar power systems in the country. The goal is to stabilize the power grid, which has been severely affected by Russian attacks.
"The government has been tasked with immediately presenting a program to encourage the installation of solar generation and energy storage systems in Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on Thursday.
Under the plan, citizens who install solar panels will be eligible for an interest-free loan...
...The Ukrainian president pledged to build more decentralized energy facilities to ensure that administrative and critical infrastructure buildings have an alternative energy source during power outages.
According to official figures, about half of Ukraine's energy production capacity has been lost due to systematic Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities...
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-zelenskyy-calls-for-solar-energy-expansion...
Ukraine plans solar expansion to stabilize energy security
DW | 20 June 2024
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy plans to expand the construction of solar power systems in the country. The goal is to stabilize the power grid, which has been severely affected by Russian attacks.
"The government has been tasked with immediately presenting a program to encourage the installation of solar generation and energy storage systems in Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on Thursday.
Under the plan, citizens who install solar panels will be eligible for an interest-free loan...
...The Ukrainian president pledged to build more decentralized energy facilities to ensure that administrative and critical infrastructure buildings have an alternative energy source during power outages.
According to official figures, about half of Ukraine's energy production capacity has been lost due to systematic Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities...
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-zelenskyy-calls-for-solar-energy-expansion...
42margd
Inside India's first heat stroke emergency room
Soutik Biswas | 20 June 2024
...
...A heat stroke, the most severe heat illness, is identified by three key signs: exposure to high heat and humidity, a core body temperature of 40.5C (105F) or higher, and mental changes like mild confusion or impaired consciousness. Heat stroke is also a silent killer, and victims can begin to fall ill hours after exposure to sun. India's National Centre for Disease Control calls heat strokes a "life-threatening" condition with a mortality rate of 40-64%.
...Since {Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital (RMLH)} in Delhi opened a heat stroke clinic in late May, seven people have died of heat stroke and more than 40 have been treated for heat-related ailments.
The majority were men working outdoors and in small, unregulated factories with poor conditions, enduring extreme heat exposure. To be sure, the heatwave is not restricted to Delhi: dozens have died from heat-related illnesses since March, with more than 50 deaths in just three days in early June in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Odisha.
...It is not difficult to fall ill in Delhi. Life is tough. A third of residents live in substandard and congested housing. The city’s 6,400-odd slums, home to more than a million households, lack adequate cooling and face seasonal livelihood crises. Men fall ill working outdoors; women fall sick after spending extended periods in kitchen settings with traditional stoves.
Green spaces are scarce. In the peak of summer, the city turns into a scorching furnace, trapped between the blazing heat from above and the searing ground below.
...Those who work outdoors suffer the most. A large majority of respondents in a new Greenpeace survey on how heat impacts street vendors in Delhi reported health issues due to hot weather. Irritability was the most common (73.44%), followed by headaches, dehydration, sunburn, fatigue and muscle cramps. Most faced challenges accessing medical care due to lack of money.
...A new nationwide survey by Centre for Rapid Insights (CRI) offers some startling insights into how heatwaves hurt people and cripple productivity.
It showed that 45% of the households contacted reported at least one member getting sick from the heat last month.
Among those affected, over 67% had household members sick for more than five days.
This impact was particularly severe among the poorest. Specifically 32.5% of households with motorcycles and 28.2% with no vehicles had members ill for over five days; the figure was lower at 21.8% for households with cars.
...Some three-fourths of India’s workers work in heat-exposed jobs like construction and mining. This becomes worse during heatwaves as there are fewer safe and productive work hours during the day. A Lancet study reported a loss of 167.2 billion potential labour hours in India due to excessive heat in 2021.
...Heatwaves killed more than 25,000 people between 1992 and 2019, according to official figures. As India doesn’t compile mortality data properly, experts reckon the actual toll would be much higher.
India’s heat action plans are also not working well, as a study found. Tellingly, 68% of the vendors in Delhi have heard about heatwaves, according to the Greenpeace study. Yet the heat emergency doesn’t figure in the political discourse.
...Things look dire in Delhi. In 2022, India saw 203 heatwave days, the highest on record, with Delhi experiencing around 17 of them. March marked India's hottest month recorded by the the weather department, while Delhi had its second-hottest April in 72 years...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn00nkzdvkjo
Soutik Biswas | 20 June 2024
...
...A heat stroke, the most severe heat illness, is identified by three key signs: exposure to high heat and humidity, a core body temperature of 40.5C (105F) or higher, and mental changes like mild confusion or impaired consciousness. Heat stroke is also a silent killer, and victims can begin to fall ill hours after exposure to sun. India's National Centre for Disease Control calls heat strokes a "life-threatening" condition with a mortality rate of 40-64%.
...Since {Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital (RMLH)} in Delhi opened a heat stroke clinic in late May, seven people have died of heat stroke and more than 40 have been treated for heat-related ailments.
The majority were men working outdoors and in small, unregulated factories with poor conditions, enduring extreme heat exposure. To be sure, the heatwave is not restricted to Delhi: dozens have died from heat-related illnesses since March, with more than 50 deaths in just three days in early June in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Odisha.
...It is not difficult to fall ill in Delhi. Life is tough. A third of residents live in substandard and congested housing. The city’s 6,400-odd slums, home to more than a million households, lack adequate cooling and face seasonal livelihood crises. Men fall ill working outdoors; women fall sick after spending extended periods in kitchen settings with traditional stoves.
Green spaces are scarce. In the peak of summer, the city turns into a scorching furnace, trapped between the blazing heat from above and the searing ground below.
...Those who work outdoors suffer the most. A large majority of respondents in a new Greenpeace survey on how heat impacts street vendors in Delhi reported health issues due to hot weather. Irritability was the most common (73.44%), followed by headaches, dehydration, sunburn, fatigue and muscle cramps. Most faced challenges accessing medical care due to lack of money.
...A new nationwide survey by Centre for Rapid Insights (CRI) offers some startling insights into how heatwaves hurt people and cripple productivity.
It showed that 45% of the households contacted reported at least one member getting sick from the heat last month.
Among those affected, over 67% had household members sick for more than five days.
This impact was particularly severe among the poorest. Specifically 32.5% of households with motorcycles and 28.2% with no vehicles had members ill for over five days; the figure was lower at 21.8% for households with cars.
...Some three-fourths of India’s workers work in heat-exposed jobs like construction and mining. This becomes worse during heatwaves as there are fewer safe and productive work hours during the day. A Lancet study reported a loss of 167.2 billion potential labour hours in India due to excessive heat in 2021.
...Heatwaves killed more than 25,000 people between 1992 and 2019, according to official figures. As India doesn’t compile mortality data properly, experts reckon the actual toll would be much higher.
India’s heat action plans are also not working well, as a study found. Tellingly, 68% of the vendors in Delhi have heard about heatwaves, according to the Greenpeace study. Yet the heat emergency doesn’t figure in the political discourse.
...Things look dire in Delhi. In 2022, India saw 203 heatwave days, the highest on record, with Delhi experiencing around 17 of them. March marked India's hottest month recorded by the the weather department, while Delhi had its second-hottest April in 72 years...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn00nkzdvkjo
43margd
Gulf Stream's fate to be decided by climate 'tug-of-war'
Ben Turner | 19 June 2024
New research suggests that runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet could prevent icebergs from disrupting key ocean currents. But some scientists have cautioned that other factors may be at play.
...The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream, governs the climate by bringing nutrients, oxygen and heat in tropical waters north and cold water south. The current can exist in two stable states: a stronger, faster one that we rely on today, and another that is much slower and weaker.
Climate change is slowing this flow by sending fresh water from Greenland's melting ice sheet to make the water less dense and less salty. This has led to a growing number of studies suggesting that the current is slowing and could even be veering toward collapse.
The discharge of icebergs from the Laurentide Ice Sheet — which covered most of North America during the last Ice Age — are known as Heinrich events. The present-day cause of this melt is climate change, but during the last glacial maximum it likely resulted from a mixture of ocean heating and the weight of ice accumulating on the sheet.
This led icebergs to slide into the sea and fresh water to cascade from the shelf, both of which caused the AMOC to weaken dramatically over a few hundred years.
... {lead author Yuxin Zhou, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara} said that the changes we're seeing today are governed by the relationship between iceberg calving and freshwater melt straight from the shelf. Icebergs are the most significant factor in this slowdown, while runoff plays a secondary role. But while melt does cause some slowdown, it also slows iceberg production, creating the tug-of-war whose interplay will decide the AMOC's future ... could be a reason for cautious optimism...
David Thornalley, a professor of ocean and climate science at University College London, told Live Science ... "There is loads we still need to work out to be confident about future AMOC behavior: how good our models are; how easily the modern AMOC can be destabilized; {and} there might be unexpected surprises, good or bad," Thornalley said. "But there are enough reasons to be concerned about the AMOC, and we should apply the precautionary principle — we really don't want to see firsthand the climate impacts of an AMOC collapse. It is just one of many climate impacts we should do all we can to avoid."
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf-streams-fate-to-be-...
----------------------------------------------
Yuxin Zhou and Jerry F. McManus 2024. Heinrich event ice discharge and the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Science
30 May 2024, Vol 384, Issue 6699, pp. 983-986. DOI: 10.1126/science.adh8369 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adh8369
Editor’s summary
Will ice mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by climate warming disrupt large-scale ocean circulation? Zhou et al. reconstructed iceberg production rates during the massive calving episodes of the last glacial period, called Heinrich events, when icebergs did affect ocean circulation. The authors found that present-day Greenland Ice Sheet calving rates are as high as during some of those events. However, because melting is causing the Greenland Ice Sheet to recede from the coasts of Greenland, where icebergs originate, its iceberg discharge should not persist long enough to cause major disruption of the Atlantic overturning circulation by itself. —Jesse Smith
Ben Turner | 19 June 2024
New research suggests that runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet could prevent icebergs from disrupting key ocean currents. But some scientists have cautioned that other factors may be at play.
...The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream, governs the climate by bringing nutrients, oxygen and heat in tropical waters north and cold water south. The current can exist in two stable states: a stronger, faster one that we rely on today, and another that is much slower and weaker.
Climate change is slowing this flow by sending fresh water from Greenland's melting ice sheet to make the water less dense and less salty. This has led to a growing number of studies suggesting that the current is slowing and could even be veering toward collapse.
The discharge of icebergs from the Laurentide Ice Sheet — which covered most of North America during the last Ice Age — are known as Heinrich events. The present-day cause of this melt is climate change, but during the last glacial maximum it likely resulted from a mixture of ocean heating and the weight of ice accumulating on the sheet.
This led icebergs to slide into the sea and fresh water to cascade from the shelf, both of which caused the AMOC to weaken dramatically over a few hundred years.
... {lead author Yuxin Zhou, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara} said that the changes we're seeing today are governed by the relationship between iceberg calving and freshwater melt straight from the shelf. Icebergs are the most significant factor in this slowdown, while runoff plays a secondary role. But while melt does cause some slowdown, it also slows iceberg production, creating the tug-of-war whose interplay will decide the AMOC's future ... could be a reason for cautious optimism...
David Thornalley, a professor of ocean and climate science at University College London, told Live Science ... "There is loads we still need to work out to be confident about future AMOC behavior: how good our models are; how easily the modern AMOC can be destabilized; {and} there might be unexpected surprises, good or bad," Thornalley said. "But there are enough reasons to be concerned about the AMOC, and we should apply the precautionary principle — we really don't want to see firsthand the climate impacts of an AMOC collapse. It is just one of many climate impacts we should do all we can to avoid."
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf-streams-fate-to-be-...
----------------------------------------------
Yuxin Zhou and Jerry F. McManus 2024. Heinrich event ice discharge and the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Science
30 May 2024, Vol 384, Issue 6699, pp. 983-986. DOI: 10.1126/science.adh8369 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adh8369
Editor’s summary
Will ice mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by climate warming disrupt large-scale ocean circulation? Zhou et al. reconstructed iceberg production rates during the massive calving episodes of the last glacial period, called Heinrich events, when icebergs did affect ocean circulation. The authors found that present-day Greenland Ice Sheet calving rates are as high as during some of those events. However, because melting is causing the Greenland Ice Sheet to recede from the coasts of Greenland, where icebergs originate, its iceberg discharge should not persist long enough to cause major disruption of the Atlantic overturning circulation by itself. —Jesse Smith
44margd
INTERACTIVE GLOBAL MAP : https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/
Climate Change: Future Urban Climates
What will cities feel like in 60 years?
U of MD Center for Environmental Science
https://www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates
Climate Change: Future Urban Climates
What will cities feel like in 60 years?
U of MD Center for Environmental Science
https://www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates
45margd
Well Beyond the U.S., Heat and Climate Extremes Are Hitting Billions
Somini Sengupta | June 21, 2024
...Between May 2023 and May 2024, an estimated 6.3 billion people, or roughly 4 out of 5 people in the world, lived through at least a month of what in their areas were considered abnormally high temperatures, according to a recent analysis by Climate Central, a scientific nonprofit.
The damage to human health, agriculture and the global economy is just beginning to be understood.
Extreme heat killed an estimated 489,000 people annually between 2000 and 2019, according to the World Meteorological Organization, making heat the deadliest of all extreme weather events. Swiss RE, the insurance-industry giant, said in a report this week that the accumulating hazards of climate change could further drive the growing market for insurance against strikes and riots. “Climate change may also drive food and water shortages and in turn civil unrest, and mass migration,” the report said...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/climate/heat-deaths-floods-drought.html
via https://dnyuz.com/2024/06/21/well-beyond-the-u-s-heat-and-climate-extremes-are-h...
-----------------------------------------
Report (14 p)
Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing
and Addressing the Risks
Climate Central | May 28, 2024
A look at global extreme heat over the past 12 months, how climate change
has influenced this heat, and strategies to prevent increasingly frequent and
intense heat from claiming lives worldwide.
Key findings from the report include:
Over the 12-month period, 6.3 billion people (about 78% of the global population) experienced at least 31 days of extreme heat (hotter than 90% of temperatures observed in their local area over the 1991-2020 period) that was made at least two times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
Over the last 12 months, human-caused climate change added an average of 26 days of extreme heat (on average, across all places in the world) than there would have been without a warmed planet. This report also demonstrates the crucial role of tracking and reporting on impacts in extreme heat assessment, and offers actionable solutions to heat risk.
Using World Weather Attribution criteria, the study identified 76 extreme heat waves that span 90 different countries. These events put billions of people at risk, including in densely populated areas of South and East Asia, the Sahel, and South America.
https://www.climatecentral.org/report/climate-change-and-the-escalation-of-globa...
Somini Sengupta | June 21, 2024
...Between May 2023 and May 2024, an estimated 6.3 billion people, or roughly 4 out of 5 people in the world, lived through at least a month of what in their areas were considered abnormally high temperatures, according to a recent analysis by Climate Central, a scientific nonprofit.
The damage to human health, agriculture and the global economy is just beginning to be understood.
Extreme heat killed an estimated 489,000 people annually between 2000 and 2019, according to the World Meteorological Organization, making heat the deadliest of all extreme weather events. Swiss RE, the insurance-industry giant, said in a report this week that the accumulating hazards of climate change could further drive the growing market for insurance against strikes and riots. “Climate change may also drive food and water shortages and in turn civil unrest, and mass migration,” the report said...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/climate/heat-deaths-floods-drought.html
via https://dnyuz.com/2024/06/21/well-beyond-the-u-s-heat-and-climate-extremes-are-h...
-----------------------------------------
Report (14 p)
Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing
and Addressing the Risks
Climate Central | May 28, 2024
A look at global extreme heat over the past 12 months, how climate change
has influenced this heat, and strategies to prevent increasingly frequent and
intense heat from claiming lives worldwide.
Key findings from the report include:
Over the 12-month period, 6.3 billion people (about 78% of the global population) experienced at least 31 days of extreme heat (hotter than 90% of temperatures observed in their local area over the 1991-2020 period) that was made at least two times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
Over the last 12 months, human-caused climate change added an average of 26 days of extreme heat (on average, across all places in the world) than there would have been without a warmed planet. This report also demonstrates the crucial role of tracking and reporting on impacts in extreme heat assessment, and offers actionable solutions to heat risk.
Using World Weather Attribution criteria, the study identified 76 extreme heat waves that span 90 different countries. These events put billions of people at risk, including in densely populated areas of South and East Asia, the Sahel, and South America.
https://www.climatecentral.org/report/climate-change-and-the-escalation-of-globa...
46kiparsky
>45 margd: “Climate change may also drive food and water shortages and in turn civil unrest, and mass migration,” the report said...
Sadly, these were predictions that I saw when I first learned about what was back then called the "greenhouse effect". That would have been in the late '80s and early '90s.
The only bone I can pick here is the use of the phrase "may drive", when "is driving" would have been much more appropriate.
Sadly, these were predictions that I saw when I first learned about what was back then called the "greenhouse effect". That would have been in the late '80s and early '90s.
The only bone I can pick here is the use of the phrase "may drive", when "is driving" would have been much more appropriate.
47margd
Food's Climate Footprint was once again MIA at global conferences
"the cow in the room'
Ayurella Horn-Muller | 21June 2024
...Government heads at both conferences {G7, annual Bonn Climate Change Conference, which sets the foundation for the United Nations’ yearly climate gathering} barely addressed what may be one of the most pressing questions the world faces: how to respond to the immense role animal agriculture plays in driving climate change. This continues a pattern of evasion around this issue on the international stage, which advocates and scientists find increasingly frustrating, given that shrinking the emissions footprint of global livestock production and consumption is a needed step toward mitigating climate change.
...Although estimates vary, peer-reviewed studies have found that the global food system is responsible for roughly one-third of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Animals raised for consumption generate 32 percent of the world’s methane emissions, and agriculture is the largest source of anthropogenic methane pollution. Methane is the second most abundant greenhouse gas after carbon, and it’s 80 to 90 percent more powerful than carbon in its first 20 years in the atmosphere. This is why many scientists believe that aggressively curbing humanity’s methane pollution would be the fastest way to slow planetary warming. And methane isn’t the only environmental problem associated with meat and dairy. Even though animal agriculture provides 17 percent of the world’s calories, it accounts for 80 percent of global agricultural land use and 41 percent of global agricultural water use, which translates into an outsize impact on biodiversity...
https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/foods-climate-footprint-was-once-again-mi...
"the cow in the room'
Ayurella Horn-Muller | 21June 2024
...Government heads at both conferences {G7, annual Bonn Climate Change Conference, which sets the foundation for the United Nations’ yearly climate gathering} barely addressed what may be one of the most pressing questions the world faces: how to respond to the immense role animal agriculture plays in driving climate change. This continues a pattern of evasion around this issue on the international stage, which advocates and scientists find increasingly frustrating, given that shrinking the emissions footprint of global livestock production and consumption is a needed step toward mitigating climate change.
...Although estimates vary, peer-reviewed studies have found that the global food system is responsible for roughly one-third of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Animals raised for consumption generate 32 percent of the world’s methane emissions, and agriculture is the largest source of anthropogenic methane pollution. Methane is the second most abundant greenhouse gas after carbon, and it’s 80 to 90 percent more powerful than carbon in its first 20 years in the atmosphere. This is why many scientists believe that aggressively curbing humanity’s methane pollution would be the fastest way to slow planetary warming. And methane isn’t the only environmental problem associated with meat and dairy. Even though animal agriculture provides 17 percent of the world’s calories, it accounts for 80 percent of global agricultural land use and 41 percent of global agricultural water use, which translates into an outsize impact on biodiversity...
https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/foods-climate-footprint-was-once-again-mi...
48margd
Climate engineering off US coast could increase heatwaves in Europe, study finds
Jonathan Watts | Fri 21 Jun 2024
Scientists call for regulation to stop regional use of marine cloud brightening having negative impact elsewhere
A geoengineering technique designed to reduce high temperatures in California could inadvertently intensify heatwaves in Europe, according to a study that models the unintended consequences of regional tinkering with a changing climate.
The paper shows that targeted interventions to lower temperature in one area for one season might bring temporary benefits to some populations, but this has to be set against potentially negative side-effects in other parts of the world and shifting degrees of effectiveness over time.
The authors of the study said the findings were “scary” because the world has few or no regulations in place to prevent regional applications of the technique, marine cloud brightening, which involves spraying reflective aerosols (usually in the form of sea salt or sea spray) into stratocumulus clouds over the ocean to reflect more solar radiation back into space.
Experts have said the paucity of controls means there is little to prevent individual countries, cities, companies or even wealthy individuals from trying to modify their local climates, even if it is to the detriment of people living elsewhere, potentially leading to competition and conflict over interventions...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/21/climate-engineering-...
-------------------------------------------
Jessica S. Wan et al. 2024. Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world. Nature Climate Change. Published online 21 June 2024. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02046-7.epdf
Jonathan Watts | Fri 21 Jun 2024
Scientists call for regulation to stop regional use of marine cloud brightening having negative impact elsewhere
A geoengineering technique designed to reduce high temperatures in California could inadvertently intensify heatwaves in Europe, according to a study that models the unintended consequences of regional tinkering with a changing climate.
The paper shows that targeted interventions to lower temperature in one area for one season might bring temporary benefits to some populations, but this has to be set against potentially negative side-effects in other parts of the world and shifting degrees of effectiveness over time.
The authors of the study said the findings were “scary” because the world has few or no regulations in place to prevent regional applications of the technique, marine cloud brightening, which involves spraying reflective aerosols (usually in the form of sea salt or sea spray) into stratocumulus clouds over the ocean to reflect more solar radiation back into space.
Experts have said the paucity of controls means there is little to prevent individual countries, cities, companies or even wealthy individuals from trying to modify their local climates, even if it is to the detriment of people living elsewhere, potentially leading to competition and conflict over interventions...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/21/climate-engineering-...
-------------------------------------------
Jessica S. Wan et al. 2024. Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world. Nature Climate Change. Published online 21 June 2024. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02046-7.epdf
49margd
Could the Global Boom in Greenhouses Help Cool the Planet?
Fred Pearce • June 20, 2024
... From southern Spain to northeast China and the Rift Valley in East Africa to Mexico, millions of acres of former scrub and marginal farmland are being replaced by glistening reflective surfaces.
The intensive agricultural methods employed within greenhouses may often damage local environments by overtaxing water supplies and polluting rivers and soils with nutrients, pesticides, and plastic waste. But the influence of these seas of plastic on local temperatures can be even more dramatic — and often beneficial. They increase the albedo, or reflectivity, of the land surface, typically by around a tenth, and so reduce solar heating of the lower atmosphere...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/greenhouses-cooling
Fred Pearce • June 20, 2024
... From southern Spain to northeast China and the Rift Valley in East Africa to Mexico, millions of acres of former scrub and marginal farmland are being replaced by glistening reflective surfaces.
The intensive agricultural methods employed within greenhouses may often damage local environments by overtaxing water supplies and polluting rivers and soils with nutrients, pesticides, and plastic waste. But the influence of these seas of plastic on local temperatures can be even more dramatic — and often beneficial. They increase the albedo, or reflectivity, of the land surface, typically by around a tenth, and so reduce solar heating of the lower atmosphere...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/greenhouses-cooling
50margd
Everything’s About to Get a Hell of a Lot More Expensive Due to Climate Change
Nitish Pahwa | Jun 22, 2024
Intensifying hurricanes, floods, and heat waves are wreaking havoc across the US—and on everyone’s bank accounts.
... energy demand set to skyrocket as people turn on their air conditioners. ...already strapped Federal Emergency Management Agency faces a budgetary crisis, and
...sales of catastrophe bonds are at an all-time high.
... rents and insurance stay hot—and
... still-elevated interest rates make construction and mortgage costs even more prohibitive.
... insurers hiking premiums for cars in especially disaster-vulnerable regions
.... home insurance: Providers are either retreating from or dramatically heightening their prices
... insurance crises there may ultimately wreak havoc on the broader real estate sector
... yields for important commodities ... (fruits, nuts, corn, sugar, veggies, wheat) are withering
... supply chains through which these products usually travel are thrown off course at varying points
...supply-chain middlemen and product sellers to anticipate consequential cost increases down the line
... contributors to May’s inflation: juices and frozen drinks (19.5 percent), along with sugar and related substitutes (6.4 percent). ... Florida
... trajectory and spread of bird flu across American livestock— ... meat and milk prices.
... basic building block of modern life: labor, immigration, travel, and materials for homebuilding, transportation, power generation, and necessary appliances.
... prices of timber, copper, and rubber; even chocolate prices were skyrocketing not long ago,
... outdoor workers ... are experiencing adverse health impacts
... record-breaking influxes of migrants from vulnerable countries
... elaborate {beachside} manors ... rebuild them ... {inurance} costs are handed off to taxpayers.
....can’t keep ignoring the clear links between our current weather hellscape, climate change, and our everyday goods.
.... insurance company assessments
... artificial intelligence ... improve extreme-weather predictions and risk forecasts.
... At the state level, insurers are pushing back against local policies that bafflingly forbid them from pricing climate risks into their models, and
... Florida...more transparency...around regional flooding histories.
... New York .. ban insurers from backstopping fossil-fuel industry
...we’re no longer in a world where climate change affects the economy, or where voters prioritizing economic or inflationary concerns are responding to something distinct from climate change—we’re in a world where climate change is the economy.
https://www.wired.com/story/everythings-about-to-get-a-hell-of-a-lot-more-expens...
Nitish Pahwa | Jun 22, 2024
Intensifying hurricanes, floods, and heat waves are wreaking havoc across the US—and on everyone’s bank accounts.
... energy demand set to skyrocket as people turn on their air conditioners. ...already strapped Federal Emergency Management Agency faces a budgetary crisis, and
...sales of catastrophe bonds are at an all-time high.
... rents and insurance stay hot—and
... still-elevated interest rates make construction and mortgage costs even more prohibitive.
... insurers hiking premiums for cars in especially disaster-vulnerable regions
.... home insurance: Providers are either retreating from or dramatically heightening their prices
... insurance crises there may ultimately wreak havoc on the broader real estate sector
... yields for important commodities ... (fruits, nuts, corn, sugar, veggies, wheat) are withering
... supply chains through which these products usually travel are thrown off course at varying points
...supply-chain middlemen and product sellers to anticipate consequential cost increases down the line
... contributors to May’s inflation: juices and frozen drinks (19.5 percent), along with sugar and related substitutes (6.4 percent). ... Florida
... trajectory and spread of bird flu across American livestock— ... meat and milk prices.
... basic building block of modern life: labor, immigration, travel, and materials for homebuilding, transportation, power generation, and necessary appliances.
... prices of timber, copper, and rubber; even chocolate prices were skyrocketing not long ago,
... outdoor workers ... are experiencing adverse health impacts
... record-breaking influxes of migrants from vulnerable countries
... elaborate {beachside} manors ... rebuild them ... {inurance} costs are handed off to taxpayers.
....can’t keep ignoring the clear links between our current weather hellscape, climate change, and our everyday goods.
.... insurance company assessments
... artificial intelligence ... improve extreme-weather predictions and risk forecasts.
... At the state level, insurers are pushing back against local policies that bafflingly forbid them from pricing climate risks into their models, and
... Florida...more transparency...around regional flooding histories.
... New York .. ban insurers from backstopping fossil-fuel industry
...we’re no longer in a world where climate change affects the economy, or where voters prioritizing economic or inflationary concerns are responding to something distinct from climate change—we’re in a world where climate change is the economy.
https://www.wired.com/story/everythings-about-to-get-a-hell-of-a-lot-more-expens...
51margd
By 2050, we may see:
"substantial declines" in global food production of 6 to 14%
"the number of additional people with severe food insecurity" increases by 556 million to 1.36 billion
Tom Kompas et al. 2024. Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity. Scientific Reports volume 14, Article number: 14398 (22 June 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-65274-z
ABSTRACT
Findings are presented for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs) and project:
(a) substantial declines, as measured by GCal, in global food production of some 6%, 10%, and 14% to 2050 and
(b) the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, correspondingly, increases by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.
RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway, e.g., temperature
RCP8.5 - radiative forcing is the additional amount of energy in Earth’s climate system, 90th percentile relative to preindustrial levels, consistent with “a relatively conservative business as usual case with low income, high population and high energy demand” (https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2007117117)
SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, e.g., demographics, changes in population growth and dietary makeup
"substantial declines" in global food production of 6 to 14%
"the number of additional people with severe food insecurity" increases by 556 million to 1.36 billion
Tom Kompas et al. 2024. Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity. Scientific Reports volume 14, Article number: 14398 (22 June 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-65274-z
ABSTRACT
Findings are presented for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs) and project:
(a) substantial declines, as measured by GCal, in global food production of some 6%, 10%, and 14% to 2050 and
(b) the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, correspondingly, increases by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.
RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway, e.g., temperature
RCP8.5 - radiative forcing is the additional amount of energy in Earth’s climate system, 90th percentile relative to preindustrial levels, consistent with “a relatively conservative business as usual case with low income, high population and high energy demand” (https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2007117117)
SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, e.g., demographics, changes in population growth and dietary makeup
