Página inicialGruposDiscussãoMaisZeitgeist
Pesquise No Site
Este site usa cookies para fornecer nossos serviços, melhorar o desempenho, para análises e (se não estiver conectado) para publicidade. Ao usar o LibraryThing, você reconhece que leu e entendeu nossos Termos de Serviço e Política de Privacidade . Seu uso do site e dos serviços está sujeito a essas políticas e termos.

Resultados do Google Livros

Clique em uma foto para ir ao Google Livros

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of…
Carregando...

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (original: 2015; edição: 2015)

de Philip E. Tetlock (Autor)

MembrosResenhasPopularidadeAvaliação médiaMenções
1,0013720,911 (3.94)13
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--… (mais)
Membro:jonhoyle
Título:Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Autores:Philip E. Tetlock (Autor)
Informação:Crown (2015), 355 pages
Coleções:Sua biblioteca
Avaliação:
Etiquetas:Nenhum(a)

Informações da Obra

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction de Philip E. Tetlock (2015)

Carregando...

Registre-se no LibraryThing tpara descobrir se gostará deste livro.

Ainda não há conversas na Discussão sobre este livro.

» Veja também 13 menções

Mostrando 1-5 de 40 (seguinte | mostrar todas)
Interesting story of a research program organised to try to identify people with great forecasting skills and understand what kind of thinking helped them be this way, or improve.

A much more important ans very interesting final few chapters on the broader space of trying to predict events in the future, probability distributions, and complexity. The question about the limits of forecasting is commendable and perhaps one of the most important points of the book. We can talk about knowledge and prediction within a certain timeframe but beyond that it is a completely different situation and the game changes and its impossible to really
look ahead that far. ( )
  yates9 | Feb 28, 2024 |
Voorspellen is moeilijk, vooral als het om de toekomst gaat. Deze uitspraak wordt algemeen toegeschreven aan Niels Bohr, de Deense natuurkundige. Toch meent Philip Tetlock dat het wel degelijk mogelijk is over bepaalde onderwerpen een adequate toekomstvoorspelling te doen. Sterker nog, sommige mensen kunnen dat zo goed dat hij ze supervoorspellers noemt. Omdat supervoorspellen mij een heel handige vaardigheid in het crisismanagement lijkt, las ik Tetlock’s boek. Eens checken of er iets af te kijken valt.

En ja, dat is er. Supervoorspellers gaat zowel over de techniek van het voorspellen als wel de persoonlijke eigenschappen die daar bij horen. Daar steek je altijd iets van op als crisismanager. Ik heb daarom geprobeerd de rode lijn uit het boek te filteren en hier samen te vatten.

Dat viel niet mee. Tetlock gooit op z’n zachtst gezegd alles door elkaar. Hij maakt er een soort puzzel van, wier stukjes weliswaar allemaal aanwezig zijn maar niet persé in een logische volgorde. Hij lardeert dat dan weer wel met tal van voorbeelden en anekdotes uit zijn onderzoekspraktijk, wat het een levendig boek om te lezen maakt.

Dus zeker geen verloren tijd, al helemaal niet als hij tussen de regels door over de controverse tussen Klein en Kahneman begint (failure to disagree, eerder besproken in dit blog) en zijn gedachten laat varen over Black Swans en Taleb’s mening over Supervoorspellers. Dat vind ik persoonlijk leuke extra’s die dit boek verbindt met blogs als Kahneman’s Ruis, Het Onwaarschijnlijkheidsprincipe, Taleb’s Toeval en The Black Swan. Lees de hele bespreking op mijn boekenblog https://www.rizoomes.nl/psychologie/supervoorspellers-een-boekrecensie/ ( )
  Rizoomes | Feb 25, 2024 |
The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times
  conflict | Aug 31, 2022 |
In the end hits turned out to be advertising for the business the authors created. I notice that their website does not abide by their ethidcs espoused in this book about showing the record of past predictions. You have to go to archive.org for that. Business has different rules to academia, clearly. ( )
  Paul_S | Aug 2, 2021 |
Thoroughly researched and engaging discussion of how to improve human's ability to predict future events under uncertain conditions. Read this in part to support the risk prediction for work. ( )
  brakketh | Jul 31, 2021 |
Mostrando 1-5 de 40 (seguinte | mostrar todas)
sem resenhas | adicionar uma resenha

» Adicionar outros autores (13 possíveis)

Nome do autorFunçãoTipo de autorObra?Status
Philip E. Tetlockautor principaltodas as ediçõescalculado
Gardner, Danautor principaltodas as ediçõesconfirmado
Leite, Cássio de ArantesTradutorautor secundárioalgumas ediçõesconfirmado
Richards, JoelNarradorautor secundárioalgumas ediçõesconfirmado
Você deve entrar para editar os dados de Conhecimento Comum.
Para mais ajuda veja a página de ajuda do Conhecimento Compartilhado.
Título canônico
Título original
Títulos alternativos
Data da publicação original
Pessoas/Personagens
Lugares importantes
Eventos importantes
Filmes relacionados
Epígrafe
Dedicatória
Primeiras palavras
Informação do Conhecimento Comum em inglês. Edite para a localizar na sua língua.
We are all forecasters.
Citações
Últimas palavras
Informação do Conhecimento Comum em inglês. Edite para a localizar na sua língua.
Aviso de desambiguação
Editores da Publicação
Autores Resenhistas (normalmente na contracapa do livro)
Idioma original
Informação do Conhecimento Comum em inglês. Edite para a localizar na sua língua.
CDD/MDS canônico
LCC Canônico

Referências a esta obra em recursos externos.

Wikipédia em inglês (1)

"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--

Não foram encontradas descrições de bibliotecas.

Descrição do livro
Resumo em haiku

Revisores inicias do LibraryThing

O livro de Philip E. Tetlock, Superforecasting, estava disponível em LibraryThing Early Reviewers.

Current Discussions

Nenhum(a)

Capas populares

Links rápidos

Avaliação

Média: (3.94)
0.5
1 3
1.5 1
2 6
2.5 3
3 36
3.5 9
4 67
4.5 9
5 53

É você?

Torne-se um autor do LibraryThing.

 

Sobre | Contato | LibraryThing.com | Privacidade/Termos | Ajuda/Perguntas Frequentes | Blog | Loja | APIs | TinyCat | Bibliotecas Históricas | Os primeiros revisores | Conhecimento Comum | 205,846,882 livros! | Barra superior: Sempre visível