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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly…
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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: The Impact of the… (edição: 2010)

de Nassim Nicholas Nicholas Taleb (Autor)

Séries: Incerto (2)

MembrosResenhasPopularidadeAvaliação médiaConversas / Menções
7,273172936 (3.73)1 / 102
Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
Membro:Laurence.Lai
Título:The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto, Band 2)
Autores:Nassim Nicholas Nicholas Taleb (Autor)
Informação:Random House Publishing Group (2010), Edition: 2nd edition, 480 pages
Coleções:Sua biblioteca
Avaliação:
Etiquetas:IT&M-0770-0280

Detalhes da Obra

A lógica do cisne negro de Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Mostrando 1-5 de 172 (seguinte | mostrar todas)
I just didn't like this book enough to take the time to provide a review. My stubbornness was the only reason I ended up finishing the book. Nassim makes the point that random, unexpected events can and do occur, and that we have to recognize that in our evaluations. But he could have done this in a short magazine article. To me, he just beat the idea to death.
( )
  rsutto22 | Jul 15, 2021 |
At times this is a difficult to read polemic on uncertainty. Paragraph whilst the authors charm and obvious erudition come through it is not the easiest of books to read. I do find some parts of it difficult to follow and I would recommend not reading this when tired. However some of the stipulations suppositions and theories within our very intriguing and definitely worthwhile looking at. Selfishness ( )
  aadyer | Jun 27, 2021 |
El cisne negro: El impacto de lo altamente improbable es un libro de 2007 del autor y ex operador de opciones Nassim Nicholas Taleb. El libro se centra en el impacto extremo de eventos atípicos raros e impredecibles, y en la tendencia humana a encontrar explicaciones simplistas para estos eventos, retrospectivamente.
  varbes | May 5, 2021 |
I cannot recall another book where the author praises himself more while continually dismissing the work of others. This running comparison of the author's brilliance with the incompetence of others would be easier to swallow if he had provided references to his and others' work. (Names of the author's friends and his life experiences are not adequate references.)
The primary example upon which he based the book (the turkey story) is a beautiful example of statistics with a sample size of one! With no more data than one turkey's growth and death records a year for each of the past few years (or a few turkeys from last year), elementary statistics would be adequate to predict the turkey's Black Swan event to the day. ( )
1 vote Brown | Apr 24, 2021 |
I got stuck on page 128 when reading this back in 2013.
I am not an expert in probability.
My impression was that the author used a great number of anecdotes to get his point across -- somewhat contradictory. So I had mixed feelings about his claim and am happy to defer to other people's opinion. ( )
  BesterikEz0815 | Mar 29, 2021 |
Mostrando 1-5 de 172 (seguinte | mostrar todas)
Since the book was written prior to the current situation, many of the insights will seem prophetic. For instance, “regulators in the banking business are prone to a severe expert problem and they tend to condone reckless but (hidden) risk taking.” Some might think that the book specifically predicted the current market and economic crisis—wrong. The book is about the expectation that it could occur.
adicionado por dtw42 | editarBusiness Economics, Gerald L Musgrave (Web site pago) (Aug 11, 2011)
 
Some of his presentation is incendiary in criticizing economics, finance, and many of its most honored practitioners. Because the book is viewed as being partly about Taleb himself and because of the style of the presentation, some react to the author's persona. If you are forewarned and forearmed, it is easier to focus on the ideas in the book. Because the arguments are controversial, it is understandable that he has chosen to have sharp elbows in getting to the front of the stage.
adicionado por Jozefus | editarJSTOR / Business Economics, Gerald L. Musgrave (Web site pago) (Apr 1, 2009)
 
Taleb and his publishers clearly believe the success of Fooled by Randomness is going to come again. But that book had a persuasive sobriety. The same cannot be said for The Black Swan, which despite the great utility of its insights is badly structured and hurriedly written.
adicionado por Jozefus | editarThe Guardian, Giles Foden (May 12, 2007)
 
"The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition, and contains such wise observations as: “We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control.” But the book exhibits shortcomings, the first being lack of structure.
adicionado por Jozefus | editarThe New York Times, Greg Easterbrook (Apr 22, 2007)
 

» Adicionar outros autores (14 possíveis)

Nome do autorFunçãoTipo de autorObra?Status
Nassim Nicholas Talebautor principaltodas as ediçõescalculado
Pietiläinen, KimmoTradutorautor secundárioalgumas ediçõesconfirmado
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Before the discovery of Australia, people in the Old World were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence.
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Die beste Strategie besteht also darin, möglichst viel auszuprobieren und möglichst viele Chancen, aus den sich Schwarze Schwäne ergeben könnten, zu ergreifen.
Die narrative Verzerrung ist Ausdruck unserer eingeschränkten Fähigkeit, Reihen von Fakten zu betrachten, ohne eine Erklärung in sie hineinzuweben oder, was dasselbe bedeutet, gewaltsam eine logische Verknüpfung, einen Beziehungspfeil zwischen ihnen herzustellen. Erklärungen binden Fakten zusammen. Sie sorgen dafür, dass wir uns viel leichter an sie erinnern können, dass sie mehr Sinn ergeben. Diese Neigung kann uns aber in die Irre führen, wenn sie unseren Eindruck, dass wir verstehen, verstärkt.
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Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.

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