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1Bretzky1
I don't really know what to make of this announcement by Nicolas Maduro regarding a supposed US plot against his opponent in the upcoming Venezuelan presidential election. Could the Chavistas really be concerned that Capriles might win the election?
I just don't see that as having a high probability of occurring. The election is coming too soon after Chavez's death for there not to be a large sympathy vote for Maduro. I also have to think that a fair number of Capriles's voters from the last election might think twice about voting for him again given how unsettled the situation is in Venezuela right now. A lot of blood would probably be spilled if Capriles were to win the election. And even if the election were to be close if it were freely and fairly run, the Chavistas could just thrown in a few tens of thousands of extra votes for Maduro to give their man the win.
This is probably just the Chavistas positioning themselves to take this step if it turns out that the election starts to go so far south for them that no amount of electoral shenanigans can make a Maduro victory seem like anything other than a stolen election.
I just don't see that as having a high probability of occurring. The election is coming too soon after Chavez's death for there not to be a large sympathy vote for Maduro. I also have to think that a fair number of Capriles's voters from the last election might think twice about voting for him again given how unsettled the situation is in Venezuela right now. A lot of blood would probably be spilled if Capriles were to win the election. And even if the election were to be close if it were freely and fairly run, the Chavistas could just thrown in a few tens of thousands of extra votes for Maduro to give their man the win.
This is probably just the Chavistas positioning themselves to take this step if it turns out that the election starts to go so far south for them that no amount of electoral shenanigans can make a Maduro victory seem like anything other than a stolen election.
